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Random Thoughts


Breakfast with Beeks in the morning!

  • I'm U.K, You're U.K!

  • "With volume expanding, volume flows running 6:1 up/down, and breadth running +3:1, it is difficult not to give the bull case, even if only short-term, some credence. Yet the bears seemed prolific yesterday, as a certain incredulousness accompanied the strength. Given the short position in NDX futures by large speculators (near a record), it could result in additional pain for incredulous bulls. With trend deteriorating, our call remains that this is a bounce, but it is a bounce that we are playing." -- Lehman technician Jeff DeGraaf

  • As it stands, the critter compass is pointing east by northeast (but under our aforementioned resistance). The snazzy NYSE breadth (2:1) is the single best thing on my eight screens. DJIA 10,400 remains the most bearish element in the mix.

  • Are you ready for some Greenberg? (Think Herb!)

  • While I had every intention of actually exercising last night, I got a call from a friend (who recently lost his wife) and called an audible. Fish, Succo and I surrounded him with some ol' fashioned Minyan love and made the most of our journey together.

  • Heads up Minyans-the Mother Chip (INTC) will have an analyst meeting today at 1:00 EST.

  • Some choppy posturing in front of tomorrow's breakfast with Beeks?

  • I still have two feet in the fur (50% conviction on the short-side) but I'm admittedly nervous on two fronts. The first is the internals, which we touched on earlier, and the second is a potentially binary event tomorrow (which I have no edge). As it stands, I'm about 40 Dow points in the lurch on this latest effort but that won't factor into the decision making process when it arrives.

  • Good traders know how to make money. Great traders know how to take a loss. It's one of the first things I learned in this business and it remains sticky noted to Meehan's forehead as we edge forward through the muck.

  • I remember 2000 like it was yesterday. Every bounce, regardless of the magnitude, was embraced by the Matador Crowd and sucked in fresh exposure. It took a long time (and a lot of pain) to wean people outa that mindset.

  • I cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid Aoccdrnig to a rsceearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer inwaht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, The olny iprmoatnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Amzanig huh? yaeh and I awlyas thought slpeling was ipmorantt.

  • Now HE'S a eunuch!

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "Toddo--I noticed your earlier Buzz from Jeremy Siegel--this from the man that says it doesn't matter what price you pay for stocks since 7%+ returns per year are guaranteed over the long cycle?!" -- Uber-Minyan Jeff Saut of Raymond James

  • And NO baseball! And NO apple pie!

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "Professor Succo, I continue to appreciate your daily perspective. A question, please: A short seller of GM who was unlucky enough to have borrowed the shares from this particular large holder (presumably, not knowing the source of the shares) would have been informed the shares were no longer available (and then he must cover)? By extension, my Schwab broker could have required this of me? I realize I could ask him this question, but I have learned not to trust brokers. I realize you are a busy guy, and appreciate when you take a moment to give me the gift of answering. Minyan A."

    Yes, your Schwab broker will "buy you in" if they cannot locate a borrow. But surprise, it is not actually your broker that you talk to that will do this. It is their back-office, which is notified of the situation. They then buy back stock over the accounts that are short. The basis for who gets "bought in" varies from firm to firm, but is somewhat random. Your broker most likely will not be notified when this is done. And neither will you.

  • Whataya say BCA?

  • The dangers of liquidity.

  • Enjoy your journey today!

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