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Random Thoughts


Welcome to the summer--where men are men and sheep are nervous!

  • The greenback is grinding higher (+30 bips) and commodities have gotten soooofter. Why? Perhaps the Bloomberg story regarding the potential Iran accord? Remember Minyans, there is a semblance of "peace risk" in crude and gold.

  • "Maybe Hoofy should try to start from a down open next month. I commented on this last week but with one day left in the month it's worth highlighting that the S&P futures are +20.30 in the overnight session and -76.20 intraday, through yesterday. Impressive." Professor Jason Roney on today's Buzz

  • Mucho Minyan white light to our good friend Stephen Nagler as he digs deep and fights the good fight.

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey finds a drop in bullish sentiment to 42.6% from 43.8% and a jump in bearish sentiment to 29.8% from 27.6% prior week.

  • Rest in peace, Mr. Beeks.

  • Market Breadth is minty fresh at 3:1 (NYSE) and 2:1 (Nazz). All day.

  • Some volatility perspective, courtesy of Professor Bennet "Don't call me Neil!" Sedacca.

  • Me? I'll stick to flowers.

  • The Minx continues to slink near session highs sans probe. We saw this last week and offered that the sooner we saw a test (following a nosty close), the better the odds that we close higher (if, in fact, we were to close higher). Thus far, the broader tape has shaken off the heebie jeebies. The commodities, however, aren't as lucky as nickel gets nicked (-6%), silver gets swabbed (-4%) and energy spills lower across the board.

  • There is some caution emerging in Brazil and Mexico (off their highs) but, thus far, they're wearing a brave face.

  • Is anyone else hearing more stories about "gas rage?" Not a shocker given our observations on social acrimony and the effects on the dwindling middle class.

  • If you're looking for a real-time example of how you can't rely on oversold stochastics as an upside market timer, pull up a chart of the homies. The HGX is sitting on support levels that date back to last January.

  • As discussed last week, I flipped my SunMicro stock into a slew of January upside calls.

  • At the request of QV, I wanted to remind ye faithful that today is the last day for the MIM3 early bird special. It's gonna be a heckuva humdinga and it's coming up quick!

  • "I have explained that 1987 was a confluence of events where the structure of the market was very dangerous. Years of a grinding higher stock market convinced everyone that selling puts at pennies was free money. Combine that with the disastrously flawed product of portfolio insurance and the market was like putting a bucket of gasoline next to a furnace. This does not mean the market cannot correct or even go into a long term bear market. I certainly think the fundamentals and the macro structure make that possible: an unwinding of the credit bubble could take equity markets much lower than even bears think. But I think that would manifest over a longer period of time." Professor John Succo on today's Buzz.

  • The piggies, meanwhile, are holding the all-important BKX 108 level. That's a line in the sand that would make Gabrielle Reece blush!

  • Circling back to the metal shack, I'm still involved in the equity side of the equation despite the sudden slippage. It's the whole "buy dips rather than chase" thang, and I'm trading 'em as a function of price.

  • Some Presidential approval perspective.

  • While I'm not a big fan of gaming invisible catalysts, I'll remind Minyans that we may see some "gamesmanship" as we edge to the end of a rather tough month. And welcome to the summer--where men are men and sheep are nervous!

  • R.P.
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Positions in metals, energy, SUNW
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