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Random Thoughts



  • It's official-I wanna adopt a few prairie dogs.

  • The art of reactive rationalization.

  • How Meehan spent his summer vacation.

  • BofA's excellent strategist Tom McManus notes the "stretched" valuations of the Utes (and continues to prefer the energy patch).
  • While I'm uber-respectful of unforeseen agendas--and despite a promise to myself to edge back into the fray gingerly--I'm starting to get that ol' familar feeling with this tape. I "see" the potential reverse dandruff in the DJIA but the combination of lofty stochastics, looming unknowns and a collective "hope" has me eyeing the fur. My vehicle of risk definition, so you know, would be slightly above NDX 1550.

  • The VXO is up 12% on the session and almost at Bar Mitzvah levels.

  • Meanwhile, at the Roach Motel...

  • I was taking a stroll through the Santa Fe plaza, making a conscious effort to balance (and not think tape) when, out of the corner of my ear, I overheard two gentlemen talking about equities, the "surging" economy and opportunities in the housing market. As I couldn't help myself, I walked over and spent the next half hour talking through their points and counterpoints. If nothing else, we've got a few new Minyans in our midst as the critter nation expands into the southwest.

  • Don't mess with the Monks!

  • "Being in the midst of a global currency devaluation scenario, it is worth noting that while oil is the king of commodities, gold is the king of money," Lips said, noting that oil is under-priced and that oil producers are not getting real value by pegging it to the dollar.

  • Elbow Grease!

  • A quack of a different kind.

  • "Short-term indicators (price, breadth, and volume) are overbought and overall volume (NYSE and Nasdaq) has been light, but it is unlikely right here that these conditions will be problematic given the construction of the charts for the three major indexes and for our bellwethers. Nasdaq is up 9% over the last 21 trading days. As the chart shows, it's not hard to imagine that a short term pullback follows. But we don't believe, right here, that it'd be anything more than a few %. Especially since we're having a hard time finding "shorts." -- Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder

  • We're getting set to launch our annual Minyanville Weight Debate. If you-or someone you love-would like to participate in our healthy habit, please feel free to play along at home. The losers-or, should I say, those who aren't big enough losers, have the right (but not the responsibility) to donate $100 to the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education.

  • This little item may very well come in handy for those of us who do the midnight meander thing!

  • "We've had a national agenda that's putting people into homeownership who are not ready for it," said A. William Schenck III, Pennsylvania's secretary of banking and a former bank president. "This is a fact that the nation must deal with unless we want to wreck the credit of a lot of middle- class Americans."

  • Some Random links from our Aussie friend Laurie McGuirk: Is the US still a good risk? That's alotta zeros!

  • The chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Assn. is worried enough about the torrid housing market to get out of it. "I'm going to rent for a while," said Douglas Duncan, who expects "significant reversals" in regions that have enjoyed strong home price appreciation, including Washington, D.C., Florida and California. He plans to sell his suburban Washington home, which has tripled in value since he bought it a dozen years ago, and move into an apartment."

  • "In past Fed cycles financial crises tended to occur about one year from when the Fed began raising interest rates. Since the recent rate-ratchet began last June...well, you get the idea. If we are wrong in our currently cautious approach, the markets will tell us, for again as Justin Mamis notes, "If the law of supply and demand -- the only thing you can keep track of objectively, the one tool that is devoid of emotion -- tells you you're wrong, it's wise to accept it." -- Uber-Minyan (and MiM2 key note) Jeff "as good as it gets" Saut of Raymond James.

  • If you believe in the value of human capital and the necessity of a trusted network, Minyans in the Mountains II is all you. Whether you're flying solo-as some Minyans did last year-or traveling with your family (as many did as well), this retreat promises to reward you in ways that I can't possibly communicate in words.

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