The longer we sit here, the more likely we end the day strong.
A quick clarification for the active Minyans among you. I debated (with myself) the recent appendage try because my concern is that S&P 965 is too obvious (particularly after yesterday's fail there). I'm also quite aware of the action in the financials, the strong breadth, the macro tells (positive), the momentum, performance anxiety (in front of month-end) and the fact that the 50-day moving average "crossed" above the 200-day moving average in the S&P for the first time since late 1998.
What, prey tell, was I thinkin' with my furry try? Thanks for asking, as this IS an educational community and that's why I communicate these thoughts. First, I've been monitoring Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) and Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) all day and they haven't been able to muster jig (thus far). Granted, they're two small flies in an otherwise fantastic ointment but, for some reason, that stood out. Second, I've been eyeing S&P 970 and NDX 1200 for a while and we've gotten there in a hurry. Third, my coverage tells me there's some "panicky" type buying out there.
While there's surely the potential that we power through to the upside (please don't call me Shirley), I have a view and tightly defined risk. My broader bear perspective remains unchanged but I'll likely "stop out" of the fur rather than scale into further exposure (if we trade higher). Why? Respect, mostly, but also a function of discipline. Baby steps may not get us to our desired destination very quickly but we're more likely to arrive safely. (Note: stop levels differ for each trader. My particular levels are relatively tight and slightly above the recent range.)
Finally, please take a moment to read Tony's piece on the two sides of our current coin. It's a lucid and well-thought-out visualization of our current juncture (par for the course) and I think it's of value. Hoofy and Boo have been discussing it all morning and I think poor Sammy's about to lose his mind. Relax, critters, there's only a few more hours until our requisite two-day respite and we should be outa here just in time for the rain!
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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