Four Fathers and Wise Sons
It's not enough for us to noodle the global landscape and financial fabric, we must execute on our actions and position ourselves accordingly.
You say you'll change the constitution
Well you know we all love to change your head
You tell me it's the institution
Well you know you better free your mind instead
Good morning and welcome back to the critter attack. We've got a lot to cover this morning so I'm gonna invoke my literary license and practice some free speech. Not in the constitutional sense, although I certainly don't take that for granted in this day and age. I'm talking pure format, easy listening and some free flowing vibes as we ready to hike up the Hump. Settle back, settle in, settle up and let's get set for another day in the flickering fray.
I'm hearing alotta chatter about six year highs in the DJIA and the inherent good fortune that is implied by those headlines. There's no doubt that this average is on her horse and while my long stated preference for a broader proxy (S&P) vs. a myopic 30-some is well known, that's not really the point I'm trying to make. We've discussed the "dollar devaluation vs. asset class deflation" ad naseum but it's still lost on many market professionals and mainstream society. Jeff Saut touched on this too, quoting our friend Dr. Marc Faber, and his vibes on viewing the dew through a golden lens is a valuable perspective that bears repeating.
We often say that Minyanville wants to provoke (rather than shape) thought and we try to stay true to that mission. Yes, we share trading ideas, as we did yesterday, and we'll offer secular investment thoughts, as we did at Minyans in the Mountains, but the simple truth is that each of us has to take responsibility for our own investment actions. My mother used to say that the difference between thinking something and doing something was all the difference in the world. And she was right. It's not enough for us to noodle the global landscape and financial fabric, we must execute on our actions and position ourselves accordingly.
That's easier said than done in an environment with continually moving multi-linear targets. Further, with the geopolitical landscape heating up, isolationism on the rise and the chasm between the "haves" and "have nots" growing still, there's a tension in the air that belies the top stories in the mainstream media. Indeed, my take away from the recent misunderstanding is quite clear--the FOMC is as confused as the rest of us as we balance what is and what will be. The question, in my mind, boils down to two main tenets--how far will the dollar be allowed to fall by foreign holders of our debt and when, pray tell, will the erosion of confidence (in our administration and/or the Federal Reserve) manifest in terms of the price action.
One thing is for certain, the animal spirits will dance for as long as they can as an ever-growing swatch of society reaches for their slice of the pie. Hey, we gotta make hay while the sun shines and I'm right there with ya on that front. Alas, and as the Hump Day bell is quickly approaching, I'll continue to put my best thoughts on the Buzz with one eye on the musical chair and the other on a rainy day. Just remember this, Minyans, there are alotta folks out there who aren't even thinking about the things we're discussing. Take 'em with a grain of salt and a shake of pepper as we season ourselves for what's to come.
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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