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Random Thoughts


Oh Elmer..come out, come out wherever you are.

  • Swinging Gates.

  • Balance Beam? The bullish view from Legg Mason's Bill Miller.

  • Finger food?

  • Who cried when ol' yeller died? Raise your hand if you cried when 'ol yeller died!

  • The Blogosphere will have a profound impact on the internet revenue model. While there will always be a market for "premium" content, this latest foray in the digital world will likely cause some information deflation. Ad revenues, as a function of increased traffic, will partially absorb that impact but consumers will become more selective in the information they pay for.

  • Home, home in the range?

  • The porcelain piggy banks.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "Dear Todd, meditation is not something that one does, it's letting be. May it be pleasant, unpleasant or neutral, just let it be and acknowledge it without clinging to it nor aversion towards it. Whatever you do--eating, trading, writing, walking, stress, no stress, feeling, thinking, anger, greed--just let it be and be aware. Acknowledge it without clinging to the pleasant and without aversion to the unpleasant. As long as you try to do something it won't work. Certainly it is very beneficial for beginners to sit in a quiet place and use some sort of method, but all methods are about letting be. If a lot of thoughts arise in the beginning, just let them be...acknowledge that they arise and acknowledge that they pass away. Same with anything else that comes up....let it be, it will cease by itself....nothing to do. Meditation simply is. It's not something you have to run after or to struggle for. With time all the mud in the mind sinks by itself und the mind falls deeper and deeper and in the same time it becomes open, open to everything that is in the very moment. Nothing to do, nothing to expect, nothing to achieve." Minyan Mousie

  • Elmer's Glue.

  • Tell the truth-are you a secret fan of Careless Whisper by George Michael? (I'm not)

  • It doesn't pay to speak your mind.

  • More 'flation debation.

  • "Todd, regarding your blog post: We're still in a hashing out period. In the end consumers will gravitate to names/sites/sources they trust. My guess (and this isn't wishful thinking) is that there are simply so many blogs that the average user will find them overwhelming. It will, in time, revert to the mean." -- Herb Greenberg of

  • I'll pledge $5000 to Billy Meehan if he can eat this in an hour.

  • "It feels like a lot of frog kissing has been going on lately. The fairy tale of the princess kissing the frog who then becomes prince charming holds parallels with the current trading environment. Capturing trends has become a very difficult game, suggesting that several players are pursuing a similar strategy. Trends tend to emerge after several failures, often in multiple directions. The most enduring and higher probability trades are those emerging in the face of a stiff breeze from consensus opinion, yet opinions are quick to change in this environment as well. We don't feel there is a legitimate contrary opinion in oil, nor does there appear to be a legitimate contrary opinion in stocks generally. There are out-weighted positions within specific asset classes, but the most contrary call in the face of trend remains the bullish bond call." -- Lehman sage Jeff DeGraaf

  • Flan in a tube?

  • I referenced the excellent missive from Morgan economist Stephen Roach this morning but failed to provide the proper link. Here it is and, of course, I strongly suggest taking the time to read his vibe. Some of the most cogent stuff on the Street in my humble opinion.

  • Blood, Vermin, darkness...

  • "The spooz is sitting at a major dual resistance level (horizontal and downward diagonal) with all the intraday stoes showing very toppy. This is a-typical of a topping trend or potential breakout. In other words, watch closely the Fed's language and if it leads to a breakout some money managers may want to lighten-up their shorts and/or increase their longs. Don't get me wrong, I still believe this will only bring the SPX up to the 50-DMA before further consolidation. This statement is only for traders. If the 50-DMA is broken on a closing basis, over the next week or so, then - and only then - could the market be in store for another serious leg higher." -- Kevin Tuttle on today's Buzz.

  • The globalization of critters?

  • Please remember two key FOMC points: 1) put limits on your orders (it's gonna be crowded) and 2) the first move is typically that false move.

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