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Random Thoughts


Trade smart and make decisions that will allow you to enjoy your well-deserved weekend respite!


  • Does this mean that Daisy is gonna play Marge Simpson?

  • Wing Man!

  • If you don't know what a Thai Baht is, please familiarize yourself with the term contagion.

  • Bring it home, boys, and put Syracuse right back where it belongs.

  • Keep an eye on the CFTC data (commitment of traders)--they MAY be edging towards their first sell signal in a mighty long time.

  • AMG Data reports net inflows into equity funds of $1.42 bln for the week ended 5/26. Money market funds reported outflows of $13 bln; Bond funds all reported net outflows with $596 mln from taxable bond funds, $644 mln from mortgage funds, $234 mln from investment grade corp funds, and $162 mln from high yield funds.

  • I haven't seen angst flip to overt optimism this quickly in a long time.

  • But they have great personalities!

  • The S&P (1084), NDX (1424), Dow Jones (10,060), DRG (325), biotechs (BTK 495), cyclicals (CYC 639) and Russell 2000 (550) all did the 200-day dance and snapped back above (note these levels for future reference). The semis, for their part, are just now re-testing that level at SOX 484.

  • Intel (INTC:NASD) and Altera (ALTR:NASD) both host mid-quarter updates next week as Smith Baahney holds its semi fete.. The biggest bogie on the trading radar, however, is Mr. Beeks and his orange, er, crops, er, employment report a week from today. You can almost see the smoke coming out of the BLS kitchen!

  • Pop Quiz: Deflation is to Inflation what X is to Reflation?

  • This will likely be my sole column today as I have a monster meeting at 11am and another at high noon. After that, I'm piling the critters into the MV bus and sneaking to Newport for some much needed nothingness. I was hoping to bang out a "War Stories" for the afternoon snooze but I'm not sure if it's in the cards. Either way, the flickering ticks will begin to pick up next week and we'll be on it like white on rice.

  • Mental illness requires constant understanding, empathy and patience. It remains, in my opinion, the least understood disease out there.

  • OPEC meeting next Thursday!

  • There isn't a day that goes by that I'm not thankful to be surrounded by my fellow professors. There is a unique "corporate" culture in Minyanville--everyone who works with (not for) the company genuinely likes each other. That's awesome--and it keeps the circle of trust nice and strong. Panama Red!

  • If you're not reading every single column from the Iron Horse, you're missing some of the very best educational content in Minyanville.

  • You can't ignore the technical positives--but you can't defer to them either.

  • It's my longstanding opinion that the Fed has painted us into a most troublesome corner. What I don't know--what none of us can possibly fathom--is how long they'll pump in liquidity and juggle the chainsaws. What is the alternative? If WE know the other side of the trade, you can be certain that they do too (and will avoid it at any cost).

  • BKX 98 is prolly more important than the 200-day (BKX 95)--particularly if we spike to that level.

  • Black on Broadway.

  • A lil' Minyan fun on what promises to be a Heinzy pre-holiday market mush? What will today's total NYSE and Nazz volume be? The closest correct answer (without going over) sent to Collins before the opening bell will win the very first Minyanville DVD ever offered to ye faithful. What kinda stuff is on it? Stuff like this....and more!

  • I've read six respected market voices this morning and every one of them is bullish.

  • I'd like to put some hoisin sauce on that AFLAC duck.

  • Hoofy, ever the optimist--will be focused on the breadth and the BKX/SOX resistance levels as his three primary tells today.

  • Why aren't there many bears on television? Bad for ratings.

  • The Crested Butte Colorado Minyan Mountain Minglefest will likely look a lil' something like this: Thurs 8/19: informal evening drinks/pool/darts/socializing for early arrivers Fri 8/20: 9-12 Minyan professor presentations & Q/A, 12-5 activities (mtn biking, hiking, rafting, nature walks, fly fishing, etc.), 6-8 dinner, 8-on socializing/schnitzel. Sat 8/21: 9-12 Minyan professor presentations & Q/A, 12-4 outdoor activities, 4:30-9 BBQ at the Reamers and socializing. Sunday 8/22: open/travel. We're finalizing the costs and other particulars so please stay tuned! It promises to be a stone cold groove!

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