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Friday Fun Facts

By

Back Off Hoofy

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The action over the last six days has been one-sided as Hoofy marches his way back to the top. Here's some fun facts and observations:

  • The glass is half full for this Memorial Day. It's the first time in the history of the SP futes that we've seen an up close on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday for the pre-Memorial Day week.
  • With yesterday's higher close, the streak of up days actually reached six. Only twice before have the futes recorded six straight gains ahead of the last day of the month. The dates were June 85 and Dec 91 and the next day's close was mixed.
  • The streaks don't end there. The bond futures finished higher for the fourth straight day. What happens when the SP futes are up 6 days in a row and the Bond futes are up 4 in a row? There were only 7 occurrences and the spoo closed lower in 5 of the 7 (but no close was more than .5% from unchanged)

Okay, does anyone look at the Nasdaq TRIN. Professor Goepfert has accurately highlighted the risks associated with the TRIN. It's a ratio of a ratio and the results can therefore be skewed. But the 3 day and 5 day averages of the Nasdaq TRIN are so low, I was curious to see what happened in the past. I decided to use the March 2003 low as a cutoff point. Over that period of time I figure we're comparing 'apples to apples' in terms of market behavior. Here's the results:

  • The 3 day average of the Nasdaq TRIN closed at the lowest level since March 2003 low. Only twice before has the reading even closed below .50. Those dates were April 5 '04 and May 6 '03. The next day's close was lower both times and the 3 day return was -1.52% and -.80% respectively
  • What about the 5 day average? That reading closed below .555 for only the third time since the March 2003 low. The prior occurrences were March 18 '03 and September 4 '03. Again, the next day's close was lower in both and the 5 day return was also negative: -1.44% and then -1.64% respectively.

Given the run we've had, none of the above statistics suggest any material downside but they argue strongly against any further upside. That's over the very near term Minyans -- and remember that past performance does not indicate future results. Have a safe and enjoyable weekend!

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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