Bear for Sale?
By Todd Harrison May 28, 2003 2:21 pm
I'm just a gigolo, and everywhere I go
People know the part I'm playing
Paid for every dance, selling each romance
Oh... what they're saying
Shocker, Fokker, the Minyan board is lighting up with suggestions for Boo's babe. Thus far, Bertha, Stella Boo and Baboo are the leading candidates but at this point, our furry bachelor has yet to bet. Remember, Boo, if she's a good gal pal, she'll stick with you through the ups and downs. Choose wisely and no matter what happens, don't sell yourself short!
Care bears aside, the tape has entered flux mode as we waffle towards the closing bell and I've used the time to make some calls. The most prevalent theme I can discern is the desire to short the "inevitable" blow off rally when it occurs. As a matter of fact, if I had to point to a consensus, both the bulls and bears believe that an exhaustive upside move is in the cards. That leads to the inevitable question: Will the watched pot boil?
I suppose the chorus of "uncles" shouldn't come as a surprise but therein lies the nitty-gritty of the short-side pity. If the bears have all been taken out (thereby removing a layer of demand), isn't that (yet another) warning flair? Further, if they're all waiting for the blow off rally to reinitiate positions, what does that portend?
There's no denying the underlying bid -- we all see it -- and the accumulation in the financials (along with the breadth) warrants respect. Regardless of your posture or current positioning, those things must be factored into one's risk profile. The most bullish thing that could happen is a continued rotation within the market (ie-biotechs) that allows extended sectors to rest and laggards to play ketchup. That's one of the reasons I'm watching Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) and big cap pharma so closely.
In the meantime, it's quite quiet and it continues to continue. There's a tendency among traders to never be happy. We never make enough and always lose too much, that's just how it is. That half-empty attitude is self-defeating so if you catch yourself slipping into that mode, shake it off and shake it up. Life's too short.
Fare ye well.
position in bbh
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