Peek a Boo!
A furry moo would be good for Boo!
In a restaurant in a West End town
Call the police, there's a madman around
Running down underground to a dive bar
In a West End town
(Pet Shop Boys)
Alright, you tell me. The Minx acts like she wants to party like it's 1999, buyers are tripping over themselves to get involved, the dips are getting shallower each time (yes, that's a word), the S&P looks like it's in acne mode and the mere mention of fur raises eyebrows and elbows. Is the fade's fade a fade or is it mo' mo', Jo' Jo'? Inquiring Minyans wanna know!
Longtime readers know how much I hate conventional wisdom and my antennas always vibe when the crowd is in herd mode. I've never been one to climb aboard a momentum train and, by and large, selling hope and buying despair has been the money trade for a few years. The caveat to that stylistic approach is that if you're early (or wrong), your ability to effectively scale into exposure is skewed.
While I've been too cautious during this latest rippage, I know that the critters have tried to offer both sides of the equity argument. Even now, while my right hand is firmly planted to my chin, I "see" the action and the potential technical patterns that are evolving. I'll never talk "at" you or tell you what to do -- that's not our purpose -- but, at the same time, you'll always get an honest read even if it's chilly at times.
With that said, I opined a while back that S&P 970 and NDX 1200 were "doable" (not probable) and we're gettin' there. I've been reticent to grab the fur (it's hot during the summer) but that, in and of itself, may be a telling sign that we're close to a turn. So you know (and if you care), I've been adding (and removing) exposure intraday as I trade around some core names. If I tried to communicate each and every nuance, I'd make you dizzy Ms. Lizzy.
Looking at today's tape, my eyes continue to flutter between Bank of America (BAC:NYSE) and Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) (heavy), the breadth (firm), the daily charts of the indices (lower high just put in, but it's early), the financials (under accumulation), the biotechs (profit-taking), the macro tells (equity friendly) and Fokker (he's such a good boy). A "turnaround Wednesday" (lower) wouldn't shock me, I'm using tight stops with my intraday exposure.
As always, I hope this finds you happy and well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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