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The Scared Crow


Good luck into the close!


One way or another, I'm gonna find ya
I'm gonna get cha, get cha, get cha, get cha
One way, or another, I'm gonna win ya
I'm gonna get cha, get cha, get cha, get cha


I've got a couple meetings near the close but I wanted to get one more post out to my fellow Minyans. First things first, today's rally (if it holds) dings the "lower highs" and "head and shoulder" technical thesis we discussed this morning. That doesn't mean the bulls are free and clear, mind you, but it's something we must acknowledge as we wade our way through the muck.

The breadth and scope of this rally is clearly constructive but the speculative fervor is a bit unsettling. As we learned way back when, this type of nuttiness can last longer than expected and we must respect the process. While we're surely in a bullish phase, I can't help but cringe when I listen to the TV pundits offer that we're in the early innings of a new bull. That's not a cringe for today, per se, but how many times do they need to hit the bricks before they learn the same lesson... again?

Those are admittedly big picture musings and don't necessarily apply to our day-to-day fray. In the meantime, a couple of random thoughts are swirling in my crowded keppe. For instance, is the relative lethargy in bellwethers such as Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq), General Electric (GE:NYSE), Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) and Merck (MRK:NYSE) an ominous sign -- or are they simply gearing up to lead the next leg higher? What happens when the dollar finally pops in a countertrend rally? When will the manic panic subside and who's the next buyer? If things are so cheery, why are insiders dumping stock? What ARE cold-eeze and why do they taste so nasty?

Time will time, Minyans, and it'll all seem blatantly obvious with the benefit of hindsight. I can't give you the answers -- I wish I could -- but I'll always offer my honest take. It'll be right at times and wrong sometimes but, again, nothing on this site is meant as advice. It's our goal to help you help yourself and find the answers within. It ain't easy... but nothing worth attaining ever is.

Have a peaceful night.
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