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Complexity Lite

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Editor's Note: The following analysis was offered this morning via Scott Reamer's technical service. We share the vibe on the 'Ville with educational intents and is not intended as advice. For more information regarding Scott's unique approach, please click here.

Net/net: no change from our recent commentary; the peaks that are forming in this price area have a high probability of creating a reversal. The question becomes one of degree: the peaks here could be major peaks that will usher in the bear trend in place from March 7th or they could cause a drop of 150-300 bps over the next handful of sessions before bottoming and attempting to put in another peak slightly above current prices.

The more bearish path is favored by probabilities: that prices are set to decline on a hard and sustained basis. Coming underneath DOW 10250 and SPX 1163 would virtually confirm the larger bearish trend is underway. The next few days' price action should go a long way toward illuminating the intermediate term trend.

For now, the bearish interpretation appears to present a good risk / reward scenario for at minimum 150-300 bps and several sessions. We'll see how the next several sessions unfold to add or subtract confidence to that statement. DOW 10660 and SPX 1211 remain key inflection points that would force us to the sidelines while the long term targets of Aug / Oct lows are in place.

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