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Lock and Keys


Fare ye well into the bell!


He says, "Bill, I believe this is killing me"
As a smile ran away from his face
"Well, I'm sure that I could be a movie star
If I could get out of this place

(Billy Joel)

The afternoon drift is a slithery gift for the buyers of dips and the sellers of lifts. We've now been in this uber-tight range for a few weeks and it's bummed out Boo, hamstruck Hoofs and frustrated just about every critter in the 'Ville. I'll ask you to remember the image of 8000 hedge funds standing in a circle shooting at each other and remind you that the casualties will be substantial. Think about that before you initiate risk and put your hard earned capital on the line.

Dubya will take center stage tonight and we gotta circle that on the trading radar. Why? Iraq and the geopolitical "roadmap" will have profound implications into (and after) the November election. I've long opined that the psychology bubble will unravel our travel and while nobody knows when that'll hit, we must remain ever-vigilant and respectful that it exists. There are more tangible tells--crude, the dollar, the deficit--but the biggest caveats are typically the ones you can't see.

To quote Lehman sage Jeff DeGraff, "indecision is best cured by trend following." As such, you can be certain that S&P 1076-1108 and NDX 1375-1440 are sticky-noted on monitors everywhere. There is, of course, the distinct possibility that the first "break" either way will be a false signal (they're very crowded) but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. As it stands, the drifty and low volume Minx is susceptible to an aggressive agenda either way.

I'm gonna hop such that you can read this before thy closing bell tolls. It appears as if we'll be our own best company as the week progresses and the holiday looms. On a housekeeping (and much more exciting)note, we're trying to secure a Minyan Mountain Minglefest in Colorado the weekend of August 21st. We're still flushing out the details (attendees/cost/itinerary) but if you're already mapping out the summer fun, please circle that date and we'll announce the particulars as they evolve.

Good luck into the bell and have a fantastic night.

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