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Lock and Keys


Fare ye well into the bell!


He says, "Bill, I believe this is killing me"
As a smile ran away from his face
"Well, I'm sure that I could be a movie star
If I could get out of this place

(Billy Joel)

The afternoon drift is a slithery gift for the buyers of dips and the sellers of lifts. We've now been in this uber-tight range for a few weeks and it's bummed out Boo, hamstruck Hoofs and frustrated just about every critter in the 'Ville. I'll ask you to remember the image of 8000 hedge funds standing in a circle shooting at each other and remind you that the casualties will be substantial. Think about that before you initiate risk and put your hard earned capital on the line.

Dubya will take center stage tonight and we gotta circle that on the trading radar. Why? Iraq and the geopolitical "roadmap" will have profound implications into (and after) the November election. I've long opined that the psychology bubble will unravel our travel and while nobody knows when that'll hit, we must remain ever-vigilant and respectful that it exists. There are more tangible tells--crude, the dollar, the deficit--but the biggest caveats are typically the ones you can't see.

To quote Lehman sage Jeff DeGraff, "indecision is best cured by trend following." As such, you can be certain that S&P 1076-1108 and NDX 1375-1440 are sticky-noted on monitors everywhere. There is, of course, the distinct possibility that the first "break" either way will be a false signal (they're very crowded) but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. As it stands, the drifty and low volume Minx is susceptible to an aggressive agenda either way.

I'm gonna hop such that you can read this before thy closing bell tolls. It appears as if we'll be our own best company as the week progresses and the holiday looms. On a housekeeping (and much more exciting)note, we're trying to secure a Minyan Mountain Minglefest in Colorado the weekend of August 21st. We're still flushing out the details (attendees/cost/itinerary) but if you're already mapping out the summer fun, please circle that date and we'll announce the particulars as they evolve.

Good luck into the bell and have a fantastic night.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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