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Random Thoughts


There's a ton going on Minyans---don't try to swallow it all at once or capture the flag with one trade.

  • I scribed this morning that option players should be aware that premium would likely fade in front of the looming three day weekend. Sure 'nuff, the VXO is down 13% as we edge through Turnaround Tuesday. I sold a ton of (front month) premium into the opening flurry (long, not short) and have since begun to nibble on some autumn (downside) premium in the financial space.

  • Why piggy premium? I don't like how JP Morgan acts and I don't like the way Aunt Fannie smells.

  • Where "should" this bounce run into supply? S&P 1280 and NDX 1635 are likely candidates. For my part, I'm a lot lighter than I was last night as a function of sales in the energy and metal arena (not because of my 6:00 AM personal trainer).

  • When John Succo speaks about the financials, Minyans should listen. He did, after all, run some of the biggest derivative desks on the Street and knows the inner workings.

  • Lest you think that the USA isn't at a competitive global disadvantage, Jack Bauer has been exported to China!

  • We've discussed the option sellers that have dominated the marketplace during the long, grindy road we've traveled. Remember, "buy-writes" (long stock, short calls) has the same exact risk profile as a short put. Keep that in mind if and when the selling picks up again.

  • Would you like a little blood with that alcohol?

  • In housekeeping news, we're getting ready to unveil a massively snazzy tool (and a handful of new scribes) in the coming weeks. Further, we'll likely have the monster app ready to roll by the time Minyans mingle in the Mountains!

  • Alotta market sages are offering that a short-term low has been put in. It may have been--I'm not smart enough to know--but I do know that today is an important day from a psychological standpoint. With a thin and thinner holiday tape approaching, the bulls need to show that they can maintain their mojo.

  • The critters continue to send white light to one of their own.

  • "Keynes and Common Sense...If you want to learn more about the philosophy of economics that I adhere to, the antithesis of which is more and more being woven into the fabric of politics and government, please go to this website, the home site of the Foundation for Economic Education. One basic principle that you should be familiar with, that government intervention in the long run is a de-stabilizing factor, is succinctly put by the president of the foundation in a paper to be found on today's website." John Succo on today's Buzz.

  • Boom Boom Bernanke was on the tape saying that he "doesn't want to judge" what stocks should do. Does that mean that the flickering ticks are edging out of his control?

  • I bought the opening in SunMicro and didn't like the way it traded. I since pared that "overage" and am riding my original position. So you know (and because a few Minyans have asked). Note to self: When a stock opens flat in a jiggy tape, it typically means that supply is looming.

  • Market breadth, which was 4:1 positive, has since abated to a 2:1 stance.

  • Despite Sunday's loss, Lebron is staking his claim to being the best baller ever to lace up a pair of sneakers.

  • There's a ton going on Minyans---don't try to swallow it all at once or capture the flag with one trade. Capital preservation is the first step towards prolonged profitablity and we wanna see you find your way to better tapes and easier landscapes.

  • Fare ye well into the bell and trade to win--never trade "not to lose."

  • R.P.
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position in sunw, jpm, energy equities, metal equities, financials
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