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Things That Make You Go Hmmm....

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• I love doing interviews with Ted David or anyone who can challenge a view in a constructive way. No egos, just information.

• On the talk of potential deflation and the Fed's possible rate cut as a result: There have been many rate cuts over the past three years, yet there has been no significant economic recovery. However, people may be too quick to say, "The Fed rate cuts haven't worked." Maybe that is the only reason there is growth at all. Since long rates have already come down and had some stimulative effect, the current reality is that another 25-basis-point cut wouldn't do much to jump start anything.

• I continue to cringe when I hear that this has been an earnings-driven market. In my view, that may be a small factor, but the rally was the result of corporations' ability to access the capital markets to obtain much-needed monies to either reduce debt, stay in business or grow. That is what made this time different from other intermediate-term rallies, and why I am careful not to predict the end of the world, vs. looking for a healthy pullback.

• It is MORE weird not having Toddo around. Note, I said MORE ;-).

• If you bought the market because the post-war environment was going to bring an immediate spending surge, reevaluate your thesis. I have learned from many mistakes that when the underlying reason for my position changes, I tend to find a new reason to justify keeping the position. In other words, my ego prompts me to "data-mine," rather than acknowledge that I'm wrong. I try not to do it, so let me know when I am.

• Seasonality, fear of deflation and weak economic reports should keep a lid on the market for a bit.

• Hope that the second half will bring dramatic improvement in the dollar, bond yields (yes in the wacky world of investing, higher rates would be good now) and earnings should keep a floor on the market for a bit.

• The story should be one of ROTATION and not index movement. Wanna see how it works? The market has been higher all day, the financials have traded heavy all day and consumer staples have been strong all day.

• When I'm hearing someone, I need to think about whether I am really listening or just waiting to talk... there's a big difference between the two.

• I like to listen to feedback so send it in if you would like... tony@minyanville.com
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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