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Random Thoughts


Have a great weekend!

  • "To realize the value of a sister, ask someone who doesn't have one. To realize the value of ten years, ask a newly divorced couple. To realize the value of four years, ask a graduate. To realize the value of one year, ask a student who has failed a final exam. To realize the value of nine months, ask a mother who gave birth to a stillborn. To realize the value of one month, ask a mother who has given birth to a premature baby. To realize the value of one week, ask an editor of a weekly newspaper. To realize the value of one minute, ask a person who has missed the train, bus or plane. To realize the value of one-second, ask a person who has survived an accident. Time waits for no one-make each day count!" --Minyan Lynn, quoting an anonymous source.

  • NYSE internals have been skewed 2:1 all day. That, combined with the stealth trendlines, strong dollar and toppy tech stochastics, should usher in some pause after a strong lift and into a well deserved weekend.

  • We don't have a cow. We have a bull...

  • And just like that, my brother Lionel pulls two tickets to tomorrow night's U2 concert at Madison Square Garden. Very, very nice!

  • "Due for a little breather/pullback in the market? Probably. Minyan Jeff Saut of Raymond James often speaks of his "day count" work - the fact that trading rallies off of reaction lows typically last 17-25 days before reaching a short-term trading peak. Today is day 23. This also jibes with Art Huprich's thoughts regarding a "staircase" progression and the positive implications of the recent NASDAQ leadership." Minyan Rob Fraim of Mid-Atlantic Securities

  • Minyan Kevin Depew sent me this link. Note to Kevin-I'm already A.D.D during the trading day!

  • Double Hump Day?

  • With the exception of some stealth strength in the semis, there's nothing on my eight screens to alter the "soft chop" scenario. My sense is that any downside will be contained by S&P 1180 into the weekend.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag "I never thought the day would come when these two commentators would agree: Krugman, "The Chinese Connection," The New York Times. Stephen Roach, "The Echoes of Beijing," Morgan Stanley Global Economic Forum. Thank goodness it's Friday. I'm Fried! -- Minyan Ben"

  • Brian the summer intern just walked into the hallowed halls. A few observations: 1) that's alotta gel in your hair 2) lose the suit and grab a box 3) the next time I ask you what your favorite football team is, jump up and say "Raider Nation Sir!"

  • The primary metrics in order of importance? I would venture to say: 1) Structural (expiration and credit influences). 2)Psychology (and where we are on the "denial-migration-panic" curve. 3)Technicals (with the stealth trendlines above and triple resist, er, support below). 4) Fundamentals (earnings have passed and are off the radar).

  • The source of Elmer's liquidity?

  • "We have been watching the German DAX index closely owing to the high positive correlation to the U.S. markets and because our models are suggesting the DAX has put in a very important peak and has of late been bouncing in a corrective manner. A terminal equality target for the 3 wave fractal pattern in the DAX resides at 4392. Currently there are 2 hourly DeMark "13" trend exhaustion indicators and an hourly 8 and 9 are coming up in the next 2 hours. Much has been made of the fact that the German economy is officially in recession. If the DAX turns down hard from 4392 (a mere 28 basis points from today's intraday peak) and comes under the May 17th lows, that would be a strong signal that the German economy is set to get much weaker in 2H:05." -- Scotto Reamer

  • The CRB 200-day is coming up quick (CRB 290ish).

  • Stiff competition for our new plebe.

  • The metals (and the XAU) are feeling the heat from the strong dollar. I'm still looking at lower levels as an opportunity to nibble in some silver for the long haul (not advice).

  • We'll always support our fellow Minyans as they try to give something back. Run for the roses Minyan Ben!

  • Are you diggin' the 'Ville? We rely on folks like you to help us build the critter vision. Our way of saying thanks is providing free passports to those who carry the torch. And the Minyan who stands out above the rest? You'll be Daisy's guest in Santa Barbara for Minyans in the Mountains II!

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