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Random Thoughts


I guess Elmer will deliver the tie-breaker tomorrow?

  • Zip Drive!

  • Sex Drive!

  • "In reviewing the investment landscape after a week away, we found very little has changed other than sentiment is even more negative. 1) S&P 500 (SPX) Earnings are again revised higher and are likely very conservative. 2) SPX now trading at only 15x '06 estimates. 3) Thus far 86% of companies have missed guidance with most being overly conservative. That means we are focused on guidance from folks that have been too conservative! 4) In the middle of the last economic cycle, Q4 '94 GDP was 4.8%. That slowed to 0.7% by Q2 '95. The SPX was up 22% while the economy slowed down. Despite the weaker than anticipated GDP report last week, Capital Spending as a % of GDP continues to look almost exactly like the early part of 1995, and is the area where we would stay focused." -- Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities.

  • Coming soon to our nation's capital!

  • "I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. I've been trusted to take the game-winning shot 26 times and missed it. I've failed over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed." -- Michael Jordan

  • Lance-a-Lot!

  • Toss Silver $6.75 on your radar as it represents the uptrend from the summer of 2003. A similar support comes into play for the yellow metal around $422. I remain of the humble opinion that the precious metals are attractive long-term alternatives to the greenback. The entry point and time horizon remains the tactical task at hand.

  • Feel good reading from the pacific rim.

  • Please keep August 18-21st circled on your calendar as we edge closer to Minyans in the Mountains II in Santa Barbara.

  • What do George Steinbrenner and Alan Greenspan have in common? Anyone? Anyone?

  • Two words: Bean-O.

  • "Last week it appeared that the S&P 500 was attempting to trace-out a "W" type of trading bottom in the charts. Further the DJTA made a new reaction low totally unconfirmed with a like move by the DJIA. Meanwhile, the DJUA (the utilities) made a new reaction HIGH! These kinds of non-confirmations have short-term bullish connotations. Yet, by our pencil the equity markets are nowhere near as oversold as they were back in late March. Additionally, it is now 32 months since the cyclical bull market began (October 2002; we were bullish). The longest cyclic "bull" within a trading range or secular bear market we can find is 32 months...not to mention the axiom, "Sell in May and go away." -- Uber-Minyan Jeff Saut of Raymond

  • The Monday mix is a two-sided affair as Hoofy hones his focus on the constructive NYSE internals, traction in the trannies and relative strength in beta. Boo, for his part, is all over the brokers (note the action in Goldman (GS) under $107.50) and remains uber-conscious of the layered resistance that rests above. As discussed in my morning missive, the technical set-up continues to favor the bears although many seem to think that Elmer will offer some encouraging words (via a more dovish tone). My sense is that the longer we sit in and around here, the greater the odds that we break to the south side.

  • Just put it on the Underhill's bill!

  • "As trends weaken in equities, crude has eclipsed support of $50, and is now on course to test its 200-day moving average at $47. The weakness in crude provided some support to stocks Friday, and what was becoming another abysmal week for stocks ended up being a wash. Our sentiment data, volatility measures and corroborating price data suggests a tactical long trade has presented itself, particularly in the more extended NASDAQ and Russell 2000. From the tactical standpoint, using Friday's low as a stop (1139 SPX, 1394 NDX, R2000 570) should provide decent risk returns. The long-term picture, however, continues to deteriorate with the passage of time (3 of 5 trend indications now negative), and leadership should begin to shift away from defensive areas and into more durable themes before making a long-term bull case." -- Lehman technician Jeff DeGraaf.

  • Jesus Shuttlesworth!

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