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More Random Thoughts!


The dollar continues to tick higher and critters of all shapes and sizes should pay attention to that...

  • "Breadth did not confirm the recent new high in the S&P 500 and is showing signs of a mini "double-top." the recent trendline break emphasizes the important market deterioration and says it's right to remain cautious. A lower high on any bounce would be another negative sign." John "I'll see you at MIM3!" Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder

  • While I understand that the metals have outperformed the equities year-to-date--and get the whole "mean revision" thang--I'm still set-up the same way. Long calls in this sector (and select energy) and long gamma (with a short bias) in the financials. It's been a strong trade for the last year and I think it'll be a strong trade for years to come.

  • There are plenty of reasons to think energy could squeeze higher. BUT, given that we always like to provide both sides to every trade, I will remind Minyans that asset class deflation is a legitimate risk to every sector. That thought is not lost on me--how could it be?

  • Still, given my suddenly cold hand, however, perhaps I shouldn't mention Syracuse LAX anytime soon?

  • The dollar continues to tick higher and critters of all shapes and sizes should pay attention to that (whether you believe in monolithic markets or not).

  • Keep "pin risk influences" on your radar. Names like Newmont, Johnson & Johnson, Schering Plough, United Parcel, Fannie Mae, eBay, KLAC and yes, Weatherford could all strike a pose.

  • "Don't worry about the world coming to an end today. It's already tomorrow in Australia." Charles Schultz

  • When I hear traders asking what the "limit down" level is for gold--as I did on the opening--my contrarian antennae start to tingle (it's $75/oz, so you know). I bought another slew of defined risk late summer calls in the metal arena as the stocks came out of rotation. Good money after bad? I'll tell ya in 5%.

  • Hoofy is quick to note the relative traction in the financials. IF he can hold this beast together, that'll be an important insight in hindsight.

  • The critter of the day award?

  • The S&P 200-day moving average being probed at 1257ish. If Snapper is gonna step up, I would think he does it soon. And, if he does, he'll have to do it in the face of 2:1 negative internals.

  • It's nice to see Elmer finding his old groove in the private sector. And thanks for the legacy, brother, we're having a grand ol' time while you're rubbin' elbows at Cipriani!

  • Perspective check! That multi-year trendline in the CRB (commodity index) won't come into play until CRB 325 (currently 342).

  • Television's JeffMacke® is in the hood, prepping for his weekly vibe on CNBC's On The Money tonight. And he's eating a banana. Weird.

  • I wish I was at liberty to share Meehan's morning stories. Alas, we've gotta lotta new eyes on the 'Ville and I'll have to sit on my fingers. Again.

  • R.P.
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position in metals, energy, finanicals, sgp.
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