More Random Thoughts!
The dollar continues to tick higher and critters of all shapes and sizes should pay attention to that...
- "Breadth did not confirm the recent new high in the S&P 500 and is showing signs of a mini "double-top." the recent trendline break emphasizes the important market deterioration and says it's right to remain cautious. A lower high on any bounce would be another negative sign." John "I'll see you at MIM3!" Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder
- While I understand that the metals have outperformed the equities year-to-date--and get the whole "mean revision" thang--I'm still set-up the same way. Long calls in this sector (and select energy) and long gamma (with a short bias) in the financials. It's been a strong trade for the last year and I think it'll be a strong trade for years to come.
- There are plenty of reasons to think energy could squeeze higher. BUT, given that we always like to provide both sides to every trade, I will remind Minyans that asset class deflation is a legitimate risk to every sector. That thought is not lost on me--how could it be?
- Still, given my suddenly cold hand, however, perhaps I shouldn't mention Syracuse LAX anytime soon?
- The dollar continues to tick higher and critters of all shapes and sizes should pay attention to that (whether you believe in monolithic markets or not).
- Keep "pin risk influences" on your radar. Names like Newmont, Johnson & Johnson, Schering Plough, United Parcel, Fannie Mae, eBay, KLAC and yes, Weatherford could all strike a pose.
- "Don't worry about the world coming to an end today. It's already tomorrow in Australia." Charles Schultz
- When I hear traders asking what the "limit down" level is for gold--as I did on the opening--my contrarian antennae start to tingle (it's $75/oz, so you know). I bought another slew of defined risk late summer calls in the metal arena as the stocks came out of rotation. Good money after bad? I'll tell ya in 5%.
- Hoofy is quick to note the relative traction in the financials. IF he can hold this beast together, that'll be an important insight in hindsight.
- The critter of the day award?
- The S&P 200-day moving average being probed at 1257ish. If Snapper is gonna step up, I would think he does it soon. And, if he does, he'll have to do it in the face of 2:1 negative internals.
- It's nice to see Elmer finding his old groove in the private sector. And thanks for the legacy, brother, we're having a grand ol' time while you're rubbin' elbows at Cipriani!
- Perspective check! That multi-year trendline in the CRB (commodity index) won't come into play until CRB 325 (currently 342).
- Television's JeffMacke® is in the hood, prepping for his weekly vibe on CNBC's On The Money tonight. And he's eating a banana. Weird.
- I wish I was at liberty to share Meehan's morning stories. Alas, we've gotta lotta new eyes on the 'Ville and I'll have to sit on my fingers. Again.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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