Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Dip Lower
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Earnings Report - MV News
Bell Buzz - Todd Harrison - 3:50 PM
- Another day, another dollar---at least in terms of S&P points. And what was a decent sized Snapper attempt off the lows has faded with the passing of contra-hour.
- Where are we settling? Somewhere around S&P 1515, which isn't the biggest shocker in the world as May expiration comes in for a soft landing.
- The Thursday blur has featured more motion than movement as energy and the homies stole the spotlight. I much prefer the former to the latter, technically, structurally, fundamentally and psychologically.
- Hey Minyans, are you gonna join the Minyanville family on Wednesday for the Miracle in Manhattan (6-9pm)? If so, I highly suggest watching Miracle before we gather with Rizzo and the boyz. I remember watching that game on a small black and white in my den. Was that really 27 years ago?
- T-minus one day until MVHQ moves digs and starts fresh. Another step in the journey as we shift our attention to upcoming initiatives and, with hope, a snazzy Napa MIM4. We may push it out a bit (early fall?) due to our full plates but tradition is tradition and we aim to please.
- Fare ye well into the bell, Minyans, and we'll see you on the freak that is Friday.
On Sleeper Holds and Idle Musings - Jeff Macke - 1:15 PM
- Growing up in the Midwest, I've lived through some near-brushes with tornadoes in my life. The storm that blew through Jersey yesterday afternoon felt exactly the same. Fast, without warning, terrifying. And, for the record, I did think of the safety of my kids before I thought of the implications for Home Depot (HD).
- See Nordies (JWN), having a decent day ahead of tonight's earnings as folks put two-and-two together after the JC Penney (JCP) strength this morning.
- Participate in Todd-O's Sleeper Hold Bet with Farley? Brother, I've spent a lifetime learning how to do exactly that without really knowing what I could use the skill for. Until now. My advice is to smack Farley with a folding chair a couple times before you lock the hold on him.
- HPQ is profit-taking and selling the good news. From where I'm sitting, there was absolutely nothing wrong with HPQ's earnings. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that Mark Hurd is the most important and best CEO in the Valley not named Jobs. Doesn't mean HP can't go lower in the near term, it's due for a rest along with the rest of the market. It just means that HP is becoming a great company again.
Trust in Gold? - Lance Lewis - 1:09 PM
Central Gold-Trust (GTU) is a trust that invests all its assets in gold bullion. It can trade at a premium or discount to NAV, just like a closed-end fund.
I have limited data on the trust because it is so new. But what I do have is rather interesting, since like so many other sentiment indicators in gold at the moment, it too is showing extreme pessimism, as it is currently trading at a wide 4.3% discount to NAV.
You will note in the chart of GTU (in white) vs its NAV (in blue) below, the only other time that the trust traded for a sustained period at a discount was at the October 2006 low in gold, whereas the fund traded at an uninterrupted premium to NAV throughout the period of Nov. '06 through mid-April of 2007 when gold was rising. The current discount (as of yesterday's close) of -4.3% is also just shy of the record discount to NAV of -5.2% set back on May 8, 2007.
This indicator appears to confirm the extreme bearish sentiment around gold displayed in other indicators and once again suggests that while the exact low print for gold during this continuing correction may not have been this morning, I am indeed seeing another major low being put in for gold ahead of what should be a sustained advance that will eventually take us to new highs in both the shares and the metal itself.
I would add that given the already large decline we've seen in the gold shares, even a slightly lower low in the metal is probably already discounted into the shares, which could be why many of the gold shares are in fact trying to rally today despite the new low for the corrective move in gold today and the heavy focus by technicians on the fact that gold "broke its trendline support" since the October low as a result of yesterday's slide, which is also conveniently adding to the already super-bearish sentiment around the yellow metal.
Position in gold shares, long GDX calls
10-year update... - Bennet Sedacca - 9:24 AM
See the chart here. If we close like this, the bear may be back, at least for a couple of months.
Hedgers remain short 10's in size and I remain cautious until seasonality turns.
As for credit risk, I continue to take none.
Day number nine without a trade blotter. Funny, all my sell side coverage is asking me if everything is OK? I laugh and say, I'll be more active when I get paid to be. A target for 10's? 4.90% followed by 5.25%.
A break above 5.25% I believe puts a dagger in Hoofy. Until then the 'Fed Model' folks will still say stocks are cheap...
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