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Random Thoughts

By

Patience is just another form of discipline.

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  • Dollars? We don't need no stinkin' dollars!

  • Turnaround Tuesday is a drifty affair as the bulls try to hold in the face of the scare. Breadth is 3:2 negative, which is better than it was but far from good. Leadership has (thus far) been relegated to the energy and metal complex, not necessarily the road signs that Hoofy is looking for. The greenback is slightly lower (no guidance there) and crude is doing a whole lotta nuttin' in the face of incessant Saudi jawboning.

  • "Confuzzled?" You must be a "lingweenie."

  • "Something under the surface that has seemingly gone unnoticed is the tremendous volatility we've seen in market breadth. Over the past month, we've lately seen 15 days where the advance/decline figure on the NYSE has either closed above +1000 or below -1000. When we express that as a percentage of total issues traded, we can see how historically rare it is. Only twice in the past 10 years have we seen this type of volatility. The first was early April 2001, and the other was mid-October 2002, both times when it was dangerous to push short bets. Going back further, the next occurrence was November 1987, after the crash. The next one prior to that was September 1974 - the end of that long bear market. I don't know how this one will turn out, of course, especially in the short-term. But volatility in breadth is a very accurate indicator, and right now it is suggesting that the volatility is unsustainable - which usually means rising prices over the coming weeks/months." -- Jason Goepfert on today's Buzz

  • Ouch!

  • Macke, Herb, Fish and I are doing an old fashioned Minyan Mexicana tonight! Should make for some interesting morning banter!

  • Vibes from Dr. Hussman.

  • $100,000 in cash if Meehan can eat this in an hour.

  • "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts." - Bertrand Russell

  • Giacomo fi na nae!

  • I'm a big Jeff Macke fan too but I draw the line at blatant attempts to mimic his hairstyle.

  • Twisting our ARMS.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "Taking apart the PPI numbers a step further: cost of intermediate goods, earlier stage of production was +0.8% in April and +8.2% compared to April of last year. This to me does not suggest that the PPI rise was due to higher energy prices for the first half of the year. The inflation jeanie runs much deeper than that, and it's more than just oil and gas." -- Minyan Rhino

  • Minyans in the Mountains II. August 18th-21st. Santa Barbara, California. Stay tuned.

  • 10-year dandruff?

  • Applied Materials (AMAT) and Hewlett (HPQ) highlight tonight's catalyst parade. The CPI will arrive on cue in the morning.

  • Wake up, Mr. Collins, wake up.

  • There are sessions that are "hallmark" and others that pass time. The trick to successful trading is effectively identifying opportunities while not trying to squeeze profits from a stone.


    R.P.
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