Stop the Presses!
By Todd Harrison May 16, 2003 2:30 pm
Happy Birthday Greg!
You can dance, you can jive
Having the time of your life
See that girl, watch that scene
Dig the dancing Queen
We interrupt this regularly scheduled column to make a HUGE announcement. Young Fokker, a.k.a. Greg RN, a.k.a. Florence, a.k.a. Slacker is turning 3-0 tomorrow! I give him a fair share of grief because, well, I can! It should be noted, however, that I only rib the kid because he does an awesome job and I consider him to be part of the family. Enjoy your big day, Greg, and many happy returns!
Over in the mosh pit, Hoofy's holding his own and it's vuja de for the scared bears. I've had more than one conversation (with myself) regarding the similarities between the Minx and the Jinx (Japanese Minx). If (big if) form holds, the massive suck-in could be stronger and last longer than most believe (present company included). Is this a shift from my big-picture bearish bent? No shot. However, if we're to focus on the path (rather than the destination), it warrants a discussion.
What I'm weighing (other than 210 lbs.) are the short-term and intermediate-term implications. I believe in the big-picture triple-D thesis more than anything I've ever felt in the market. I saw it in 2000 and, present chilliness excluded, it has unfolded as I feared it would. The trading dynamic has weeded out players, the landscape is littered with false promises, and hope continues to spring eternal. That, to me, is textbook. And while I can clearly "see" where we will be in five to seven years, the scope of the current "counter-trend" rally has eluded me.
As we wind down this trading week, I'm content to keep on my "cheap" puts and select upside rentals. The tape is overbought and complacent, but despite the many measures that point to a pullback, they've been muted at best. It's classic "path of maximum frustration" stuff, right? The Minx lulls traders into a "let 'em pull back so I can buy 'em " mentality, the same way she lured most into a "let 'em rally so I can sell 'em " move off the low. I find it ironic that most people focus on risks when the market is down and opportunity when it's up. Go figure!
There is inherent danger in buying a market because it acts well and, conversely, it's equally dangerous to ignore the signs of strength. That's what makes a horse race, I suppose, and I'm seeing a lot of frustrated traders jockey for position. The only insight I can offer is that if you find yourself making emotional decisions, take a step back, a deep breath and live to play another day. Above all else, don't let the market dominate your life to the point of misery. Time waits for nobody, my friends, and it'd be a shame to waste it all with stressful steps.
Keep an eye on yesterday's highs as the next "levels" and, if we sneak through them, S&P 955 is a zone on every trader's radar. It's also worth noting the crossover of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages in the S&P. That's a historically bullish signal and whatever your view, it is something of note. Other than that, today's action is par for the course as the Minx meanders into the weekend. The "blow off' potential is still out there, my friends, as are various (and legitimate) reasons for a spanking. Good luck as you find your way.
We'll circle back to the Minyan Mailbag next week as I've gotta juggle and jiggle before my critter communiqué with Casey. Our time together is long overdue and regardless of how the last tick flickers, I'm not gonna let it impact our time together. There are things in this life you want to do and other things you have to do. If you can focus on the former while addressing the latter, you'll surely find a happy balance. And at the end of the day, that's all you can really ask for.
Have a fantastic weekend.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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