By Todd Harrison May 14, 2004 8:56 am
All of this goes on in your head?
- The Wall Street Journal article on the Russian bond market crunch is the latest example of the potential domino effect of higher rates. The global financial structure is an intricate system interwoven with highly leveraged derivatives. In other words, if a bear poops in the Russian woods, it could ultimately stink up our markets.
- Reuters reported (yesterday) that the Bank of Portugal sold 35 tons of gold in recent months (to diversify foreign reserves). Could 'help' explain some of the yella metal lethargy.
- AMG net outflows ($2.4 beans) + continued offerings (Google?) = supply.
- The 1st annual Crested Butte Minyan Mountain Minglefest retreat/seminar is slowly coming into focus. IF we do it, it'll likely be either the weekend of August 21st or August 28th. A more detailed itinerary/cost structure is being sniffed out but if those weekends might work for you--and if you and the fam have an interest in hangin' with the Minyanville professors--please ping Collins so we can get a sense. Thanks!
- Eight days a week?
- Minyan Warren Bachman pinged in to note that the HUI (gold bugs index) and XAU (gold/silver index) are two standard deviations below both their one and two year trends. That, historically, has been a safe toe dippin' area (not advice).
- I make a ton of pop culture references and they are usually 'caught' by eagle eyed Minyans. However, I think I slipped one by you in yesterday's Randoms. The first Minyan to fish it out and tell me which movie I was alluding to will sport their favorite critters around the pool this summer!
- Looking for graphical representation of the current situation? Tickles paints the picture this morning. I guess the gerbil is up and running!
- Up in ARMS!
- "Dear Customers, Over the past several months, we have been faced with escalating butter prices. Our butter costs have increased 50% since the beginning of the year. Rather than substitution of lower-quality ingredients or reducing the amount of butter we use in our baked goods, we will take a price increase on May 9th for the following items:- Danish and Coffee Cake- Cinnamon Rolls and Pecan Rolls- Croissants, Scones and Mini-Bundt Cakes- Cookies. Thank you for your understanding. Panera Bread." Man, will somebody tell them that "guns and butter" is a figure of speech?
- "Hey Toddo, What do you think the chances are of a surprise rate hike and what do you think the reaction would be?" Possible and positive.
- Is this bovine denial or ursine retrial?
- This morning's data was far from good but not the disaster that some of the Red Dye Junction crowd was hoping for. That may quell the crimson swell for a bit but it likely won't stop the big picture drain.
- If the Minx doesn't hold the Wednesday low, a whole lotta fresh longs will have lost their "key reversal" catalyst.
- I humbly opined a few months ago that rude crude would start getting attention when it found a "four-handle." With the barrels now costing $40+, folks aren't monkeying around anymore.
- The bad news is that I have a heavy calendar today and will likely be off-line and in meetings from roughly 11:30 through 2:00 pm. The good news is that there will be a whole lotta fish ingested in that time frame. Wasabi!
- Professor Succo makes a very important observation in this morning's Buzz-- "One little thing about the auction that bothers me, and may bother you. Normal participation by foreign central banks in our auctions has been averaging around 44% (of the notional value of the auction). Yesterday it was 35%. In addition, 20% of the 5-year was taken down due to a lack of foreign buying (the fed in turn has to monetize this portion). One auction does not indicate a trend. But we need foreign buying of our bonds or else rates will certainly rise."
position in silver
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