By Todd Harrison May 14, 2003 3:41 pm
May the shwartz be with you!
Ted Striker: I flew single engine fighters in the Air Force, but this plane has four engines. It's an entirely different kind of flying altogether.
All: It's an entirely different kind of flying!
Well Minyans, here we are -- decision-making time in the city of critters. The choices we make heading into the final bell will dictate the risk profile we greet Elmer with. I know you're tired, I know it's tough... but suck it up and stick it out. The last thing we want to do is look in the mirror this weekend and say "Chump don't want no hep, Chump don't get de hep. Jive ass fool ain't got no brains anyhow!"
Today's action did little to quell the great debate and, against brother Moccia's wishes, I'm gonna put some thoughts "out there." My fellow Zete seems to disagree with me that the brokers will eventually sport acne (as teenagers, get it?) and has implored me to keep my loony views under wraps. Uhh... lemme think about that. NOT!
This is what I'm thinking: We could get a final rip higher that, as a function of the much discussed S&P 955 level, will trigger stops and usher in the blow off. If we don't get the final push higher, the sidelined bears won't have the chance to participate (on the downside) and, as such, we can't rule out that scenario either. Either way, I think this particular countertrend rally is gonna sting a lotta folks and, well, that kinda sucks.
While I'm unsure of the starting point of the decline, the down/up/DOWN trade still feels like the path of maximum frustration. The definition of a bear market is that nobody makes money -- not even the bears -- and this latest move is true to form. Crude crashed in March, there's now blood in bond land, the dollar is whippy and equities are sucking in fresh cash daily. Does anybody else detect a pattern here?
A quick trading point, I took a flyer on some "throw away" QQQ May 29 calls at a dime as an upside hedge. I've got a ton of gamma on and am well represented on the downside. With Dell (DELL:Nasdaq), Elmer and expiration looming, I can think of sillier things to do!
The bottom-dwellers list will post tomorrow but, in the meantime, take the time to be good to yourself. For my part, that means powering down and lacing 'em up. There's nothing better than a little afternoon hoopage and, with summer coming, I can surely use the schvitz. Do something good for yourself tonight, Minyans -- it all starts within.
Have a peaceful night.
position in qqq
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