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Random Thoughts


I sure hope that today isn't yesterday in reverse!


  • What's the rationale for excluding food and energy? That's like saying that my weight is 215 lb, ex-chocolate and pizza 195.

  • The overseas markets are dancing green but fixed income and metals continue to struggle. Does Carrie have a sister?

  • I suppose if the ducks line up...

  • The buyers are higher and the sellers are lower.

  • Buck? Bob? Buck? Bob? Buck? Bob?

  • Alright, lemme put it another way Collins. If you drop another bag of peanut M&M's on my desk, you're friggin' fired!

  • Analog Devices (ADI:NYSE), Dell (DELL:NASD) and Kohl's (KSS:NYSE) highlight tonight's drama.

  • Wanna license the 'Ville and distribute it firm wide or to your customer base? We can do that...and education is the gift that keeps on givin'.

  • The financials are offering signs of leadership (continuing yesterday's dryness). Remember, they led us down...

  • Punky Brewster never seemed to 'get it.'

  • Dinner tomorrow night with Succo and Fleck. And no, Fleck, we can't have Hoofy wait on us wearing a skirt. That's not right.

  • According to major dealer, the notional open interest in the S&P for the 950-1075 strikes is $27 billion (the largest they have ever seen for a non-quarterly expiration). That equates to 3000 futes/percent move. There will be 1000 futures to buy every day on the close IF we go sideways (dealers have to buy back the short futes as a function of the decay (theta) in the puts. For the Nazz, the same dynamic is in play with 5.5 million QQQ/percent move or 1.2 million QQQ to buy at the close if we drift sideways.

  • What's the takeaway from the above Random? All things being equal (which they rarely are), there will be an upside bias into the close from now until next Friday's expiration. That doesn't change the fact that, by definition, both the upside AND the downside will be exacerbated by the negative gamma.

  • When's the last time you ate Chef Boyardee?

  • Pass the Herb!

  • Look at an S&P chart of 2002 and focus on the spring timeframe. Look familiar?

  • As much as it sucks, we gotta talk about the geopolitical friction as it has serious implications for the psychology bubble.

  • Pretty bird...pretty bird....

  • This has all the makings of a long football season and potential bashing by Berko and Matty.

  • "A conclusion is simply the place where someone got tired of thinking" -Arthur Black

  • Hi Ho Silver...o tay!

  • We got some good feedbag, er, feedback regarding a potential Minyans-in-the-Mountains retreat/seminar in Crested Butte this summer. We're still kicking the idea around--and looking at dates--but please stay tuned. If we can get the profs lined up, it could be a LOT of fun.

  • Can I make a bi-partisan political observation? Dubya is strugglin' as a function of (turn on the news). Yet Kerry hasn't "stepped up" or shown any signs of leadership (in a time when our country needs leaders). If he pulled a Schwarzenegger (and surrounded himself with a well-respected team), he'd be in much better shape. This isn't a vibe either way--but as there will surely be financial implications into the election, I wanted to think out loud.

  • Goin' where the water tastes like wine....

  • The CPI looms large (tomorrow morning) and lotsa folks are viewing this as the last biggie of May. Expectations are for .3% (ex-chocolate and pizza .2%) month/month and 2.4% (1.7%) year/year.

  • Don't focus so hard on your goals that you forget to appreciate the journey. It's the biggest mistake I've made...but the greatest discovery as well.

  • Trading 'not to lose' is the quickest way to drop coin.

  • Note the series of lower highs and lower lows in the marketplace. That's what you call a "downtrend."

  • Lotsa folks are watching the breadth, scope and volume of the rally tries (and for good reason).

  • Citigroup (C:NYSE) remains the most important stock in the universe.

  • You can usually find ample reason to be bullish or bearish at any given time.

  • Breadth just flipped positive for the day (as the Spooz tickle yesterday's high).

  • Too Many Secrets.

position in c, silver, qqq
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