By Todd Harrison May 13, 2004 8:27 am
I don't know if I can hang with these swingers!
Good morning and welcome to the spawning. The revenge of the herds was too quick for words as the turtles and bulls turned and flew with the birds. "I was pretty excited when the stock market tanked," said Boo to his crew before he got flanked, "but before I could cash in my chips at the bank, the bovine arrived and my fanny got spanked!" Will the torrid reversal become universal or was that downside a quick dress rehearsal? It's a minxy new session and you know the drill, so suck down that jo' and let's romp through the 'Ville!
They say that man looks in the abyss and finds his character when there is nothing staring back at him. Well, our characters stared into the abyss yesterday and found plenty of man--hungry men. It stands to reason that the path of maximum frustration would be (down) through the 200-day and then back through the bears. Heck, my cat knew that "stop orders" were waiting (below that level) and a decent dose of supply was alleviated once they were triggered.
Thus the question is begged--which critter is in denial? Alotta bears got roasted yesterday and some undoubtedly--and likely uncomfortably--remain in short side exposure. On the flip side, the very same bulls who were schvitzing for certain (and looking to make sales) have now turned buyer as "the worst is behind us." I'm not sure which is more pervasive (in the near-term) but I am absolutely certain of one thing: The root cause of the rally wasn't related to any one person who happened to be on the tube.
What now? My sense is that we could see some follow through but Hoofy will ultimately poop out. I keep looking at the Spring '02 charts (S's and N's) and can't decide if we're setting ourselves up for a similar Deja Boo. Most remain confident that we'll be alright into the election but that very sentiment, in and of itself, is cause for pause. Further, my fear is that there are some very bad people in the world who are also quite aware of the November time frame. Can we quantify that risk? No...but it would be myopic to disregard the growing friction and the potential impact to psychology.
We power up this morning pup to find Europe dancin' in the green, Asia losing some esteem, the greenback testing recent highs and the metals smelting a tad lower. You'll wanna keep your eye on rude crude as well as it's an increasing focus in the Street (Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE). Beeks will swing by with some food for thought in a few so lemme hop and hear his spew.
Good luck today Minyans and just remember--you're a Mellon!
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