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Random Thoughts

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This tape is firmer than I am!

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  • The disparity between gold and gold stocks makes it tricky for equity only players to trade the commodity.

  • Sir Adam Heine, visiting from his London digs, will swing back for lunch today. Smashing!

  • There's been a steady accumulation of S&P May 950 calls from a guy looking for a push higher into Friday morning.

  • I've been having an active internal debate regarding the stop levels on this last go 'round with Boo (and the bear costume). I'm torn between my "gut" (false breakout) and an adherence to the technical discipline (and reverting back to a "stick and move" strategy). As it stands (and this is a change), I'm leaning towards the upside "stop outs" rather than additional appendage adds (in front of economic unknowns).

  • I have more conviction than ever in my big-picture bear thesis but, at the end of the day, discipline must trump conviction.

  • Regardless of what I do with the bear costume, I've got a handful of September puts that I'm not touching.

  • Rocker Fokker is swimming in email responses to this morning's poll. And no, Wyld Stallions is not a viable choice. So you know, Greg RN has assigned a ranking system (5 pts for first, 4 pts for second...) the tallied totals will be announced tomorrow. If you haven't voted for your top five bands, send an email to Fokker@minyanville.com

  • Check your ego at the door when trading.

  • General Electric (GE:NYSE) has been trading lethargic the last few sessions.

  • There is wishbone risk when setting up a "rotational gamma" (long puts in one sector and calls in another).

  • I'm having dinner with the pseudo-preppy-always-happy-Jenny-adhering-golf club swingin'-client-schmoozing-sushi-eatin' Lappy tonight and I can't wait. They don't make friends any better than him.

  • If you've loved and hated the market multiple times today, take a step back and a deep breath.

  • The Western Conference is just more fun to watch.

  • If you can find a place where your P&L doesn't dictate your mood, you'll be a much happier person.

  • Hansel... so hot right now. Hansel.

  • I wonder if Martin has gotten over Jill yet.

  • When in doubt, trade in between. (smaller increments)

  • I opined in 2000 that the entire trading dynamic would become more difficult in the years to come. I still think we're in the early innings of that process.

  • Wait a minute, Toddo. If you're SO bearish in the big picture, why would you think about stopping out your bear costume? Simple. It's necessary, when trading, to juxtapose your risk profile and time horizon. Someone once said "Irrationality will outlast solvency," and we know this to be true (think bubble).

  • With that in mind, this is what I'm going to do (as I think it, you read it). I've rented some upside exposure (defined) vs. my puts. My aggregate exposure doesn't warrant two appendages -- so I'm gonna slip a leg out (leaves one) and place an S&P 955 stop on the remaining imagery.

  • They feel like they wanna give the upside a try here -- lemme hop and see what they've got.
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position in spx, ge
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