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Random Thoughts


Do probabilities support betting the ranch that they'll unfold? No shot.

  • The Templeton Russia and Eastern European fund is down another 5% (after the six percent puke yesterday). What does that mean? Not sure---but it's worthy of a group noodle.

  • Maybe Randolph and Mortimer should turn those machines back on?

  • Why doesn't the NSA open a psychic hotline? They could amaze us with their skills while helping to pay down the budget deficit?

  • Alotta Minyans are sending me this link, which is a Bridgewater discussion on the next LTCM. As I said yesterday, it wouldn't shock me, as vibed in my (always early) antennae.

  • I wanted to walk through some thoughts regarding the United Healthcare (UNH) action. It opened sixty-something cents lower--on big headline news that read pretty bad--and I thought to myself "Self--this thing seems a bit washed out."

    I got a little A.D.D. on the opening--as I'm known to do in a sensory overload environment--and took my eye of it for a split second. Sure 'nuff, it popped like Bluto in a Faber College cafeteria and, instead of saying "darn, I missed it!," I nibbled a bit on cheapie defined risk calls. It's a PURE TRADE with trailing stops as I'm not smart enough to know if all the bad news is priced in the stock.

    But, given the way it trades today, I'm willing to take a disciplined shot. So you know, if you can and--sorry Michael Santoli--no advice.

  • The Financial Times reports that Evo Morales, the president of Bolivia, has ruled out compensating foreign energy companies that face changes to their contracts as a result of a controversial nationalization policy announced earlier this month; Morales warned that large landowners were the next target of his radical reform agenda.

  • It's worth noting that the XAU is down again despite the bold gold. I'm not sure what to make of this--other than a hat or a pterodactyl--but I covered my (pure trading) metal equity shorts as I think that's the cute side (in the context of a broader secular bull). They closed lower with gold up massively yesterday so the slippage (as gold flips into Red Dye) shouldn't be a shocka.

  • As old school Minyans know, I wanna buy energy and metals on dips and sell tech and financials on blips. It's just that, given the run in the former, I'm not a long buyer just yet.

  • Hello darkness my old friend, we've broken Nazz support again (see the tech proxy through the 200-day to start the session). NDX 1635 is the next level of lore as it's a 2006 low.

  • Keep this Nigeria oil blast on your radar please.

  • Since its launch, the iShares Silver ETF has bought 48.5 million ounces of metal. That makes it the largest single purchaser of silver in the world, according to Investor's Business Daily. The iShares Gold ETF has steadily increased its purchases of bullion in the past year and a half as well.

  • Morning breadth? 4:1 negative, which is somewhere between onions and garlic.

  • "There have only been four other times since 1990 that the Nasdaq Composite went three days in row without trading positive. It opened higher the next day 3 of 4, closed higher 4 of 4. The days were 3/13/01, 7/9/01, 10/27/03, 7/7/04." Jason Roney on yesterday's Buzz

  • Was this what Spider had in mind when I overheard him say that he enjoyed "role playing?"

  • If you haven't read Laurie's take on the shake, I strongly suggest you do so. Minyans who were in Ojai saw Laurie lug the physical all the way from Oz and he, along with Mr. Weldon, gave some eye-opening pointers on how to position. They'll both be in Vail--glistening with wisdom anew--and I, for one, plan on attending their intimate break-out session again. THAT, my friends, is the hidden gem about connecting with a coupla hundred of your fellow Minyans. The idea generation, nestled in the midst of some serious mountain fun, is icing on the cake as we commingle the human capital. I'll leave you with this--while in Ojai, while sharing some of his favorite brew, he put Silver Standard on my radar. I bought a bunch and the stock has since doubled. That noodle alone was enough to pay for mingles in the mountains for as long as the eye can see.

  • I told Athena I was feeling lost, lacking in some direction. Athena told me upon scrutiny that my back might need protection.

  • Uh oh, Television's JeffMacke just pranced into my digs, asking questions about a Mad Monkey. I told him, in all due respect, that any monkey in Minyanville is a happy monkey!

  • I've made a round of sales on my piggy puts (JP Morgan) and covered most of my metal equity shorts (the easy trade). Hey, it's Friday--I'm tired--it's a bit of jingle--and I've got an meld. It's all good. Is there contagion risk of the seemingly smelly smoke? Sure thang. Do probabilities support betting the ranch that they'll unfold? No shot.

  • Phoebe and Zoë are gonna get midevil on her arse! And, speaking of which, I think we found a solution for Queen V's allergies.

  • I've also bought some more SunMicro down here. For a rainy day.

  • "As of April 24, 2006, the price of copper is $3.15 per pound and zinc is $1.50 per pound. At these prices, the pre-1982 copper cent contains 2.03 cents worth of copper metal; it is now potentially profitable to melt them down. Presumably with the rapid rise in price for zinc (more than doubled in the last six months), the US Mint will have to find another alternative. Just the scrap zinc in a cent is worth 0.83 cents. With the costs of manufacturing and distribution, the net cost to produce one cent is about $0.014, significantly higher than the face-value of the coin." Minyan Kevin Lynch

  • R.P.
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