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Random Thoughts


Risk management...

  • It was great seeing Snoop Tony Dwyer last night. I particularly liked how he arrived in style.

  • I legged out of my lone bear costume appendage (25% conviction on the short side) when the NDX ticked at 1465. It was a small win (I entered the trade just under DJIA 10,400 and removed the first leg at S&P 1163) but the mechanics of the swing were sound and disciplined.

  • Reuters reported this morning that Ford (F) stopped sales of their commercial paper in London. The euro bonds dipped and the bottom briefly fell out of market as traders digested the news. That, in a nutshell, is what I mean when I refer to "structural trap doors" although my sense is that there are bigger fish fryin' under the radar.

  • "The slightly improved trade balance (still a whopping $55 billion) gave us pause yesterday: any significant improvement in the trade deficit without the dollar going lower from here is a data point against our macro thesis. After digging into the number our best guess is that the improvement is more due to a slower U.S. consumer and lower imports. This is consistent with the latest and lower GDP number being mostly comprised of an increase in inventory." -- John Succo on today's Buzz

  • The tape is choppy and sloppy as we edge through the dew. N's over S's remains the dominant theme although a break in either direction will likely drag the wishbone along for the ride.

  • Vive le Minyanville!

  • Remember the days of "two by two's"? That's when sell-side firms would lure traders away from their home team with promises of two year guarantees (at $2mm per). It's been a long time since I heard of any sorta guarantees being offered. It has, in many ways, become a buyer's market for Wall Street talent.

  • "It's ancient history, but we've been looking for the dollar to rally. In mid Dec '04 we showed long-term oversold readings for the dollar, that it was on long-term support, and shorter-term indicators, despite the new low in the level of the dollar, were giving positive divergences (i.e. momentum, did not confirm the new low in the dollar). There's been definite improvement in the dollar since our call while, as far as we can tell, sentiment on the greenback remains decidedly bearish. We think the dollar improving is cyclical in nature, and we expect it will continue given the positive combination of good momentum and bearish sentiment." -- Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder.

  • Cookie!

  • The drillers are still 4% away from their 200-day (OSX 124.45).

  • Thanks for your eyes Fari Hamzei!

  • Collins can you hear me. Collins? Collins?

  • "Gold at $422 spot is a critical level for my eyes, before testing $418 then $411, again, but I think it's gonna hold here due to physical buying all over Asia and some. Silver looks very solid via large physical buying and downside looks limited at 200 and 100 dma's, IMO. Just thinking out loud..." -- Laurie McGuirk on today's Buzz

  • One of the main themes at dinner last night--shared by Jeff Saut, Steve Shobin, John Roque, Scotto Reamer and John Succo--was that risk management is the single most important element of trading. When I hear a common denomenator from a crew that talented, it tends to stick with me. Hopefully, it'll stick with you as well.

  • Move over Alyssa Milano, front month crude futes are off another 3% today. Please note that Texas tea is testing the 200-day moving average.

  • Vibes and ideas for Minyans in the Mountains II topics? Let us know and circle those dates! (August 18-21st)

  • I still think the Minyanville Schnitzel (branded currency) is a grand slam idea. Gold and silver coins, Hoofy on one side, Boo on the other, "In critters we trust" and they sell for spot plus a small mark up (for casting and costs). I'm prolly a good five years early on this but I'll get Team Minyan to eventually focus on it!

  • Pass the Herb!

  • "Biotech continued to follow-through from its breakout Tuesday, and Technology has generally been responding well to anticipated news. Look for further upside, but beware that this advance to this point has been lacking in overt signs of accumulation." -- Lehman technician Jeff DeGraaf.

  • Enjoy your journey!

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