A Wise Rise?
By Todd Harrison May 12, 2003 1:51 pm
Remember Minyans -- past resistance is future support.
The sailor coming out again
The lady fairly lept at him
That's how it stands today
You decide if he was wise
(The Grateful Dead)
Somebody call Carla (from shipping) -- Scott Reamer won today's triviafest! About Last Night, the flick in which the firemen made out like bandits, Danny, was the winning response. Is he a pro? You betcha, and a mighty good Minyan too! The critters and I extend warm wishes and white light to you and your family, Scotto. In lieu of the winning tee, we'd like to send you a framed portrait of the Menagerie to hang in Jackson's room. Think positive!
Meanwhile, back at the rodeo, the Minx continues to buck higher and she's gotta lotta traders convinced that it's off to the races. There ARE reasons for the optimism -- the S&P snuck through 940 (November closing high), the breadth is once again minty, the participation is broad (not in a Bernie sense) and we've shaken off bad news. That's the bull case and, as it stands, we're seeing a good 'ol fashioned seller's strike.
On the flip side, we've long discussed that a trading top would likely occur when "clear skies" abound and everybody has seemingly turned into a weatherman lately. Further, stalwarts such as General Electric (GE:NYSE) and Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) are curiously absent from this leg higher and that's 1600 pounds worth of gorillas. The market, as a whole, trades awesome -- there's no denying that -- but HOW you approach this rally (buy or sale) will dictate our future profitability.
With the potential for volatility exacerbation (sounds kinky), I'm picking my short side spots gingerly with Mary Ann. That's not to say I haven't played the long side in niblets - -I rented names like Coca-Cola (KO:NYSE) against my put plethora last week (not involved now) -- but my predilection has been on the put side and it continues to be so. The risk to Boo's thesis is that SO many people are looking at the same levels and, as such, their effectiveness may be distorted.
Cablevision Systems (CVC:NYSE), Deere & Company (DE:NYSE), ) El Paso Corporation (EP:NYSE), Fox Entertainment (FOX:NYSE), J.C. Penney (JCP:NYSE), May Department Stores (MAY:NYSE), Schering-Plough (SGP:NYSE) and Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) highlight the earning's parade tomorrow morning, 3M (MMM:NYSE) and Alcoa (AA:NYSE) hold their annual shareholder meeting while Smith Barney (tech) and Goldy (financials) will hold conferences. After the close (Tuesday), Applied Materials (AMAT:Nasdaq), Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC:NYSE), Network Appliances (NTAP:Nasdaq) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF:NYSE) are among companies that will be reporting. In the meantime (today), keep an eye on the daily charts of the S's and N's as they made their first lower high of the session. Actionable? Not sure -- but worth a sneak peek.
Other than that, it's just another manic Monday and I'm scanning my universe for actionable situations. I'm also pretty psyched that Casey is coming to town as she always has a way of shakin' up the mojo. I feel blessed to be able to do something I love (write) while working with people I genuinely care for. Casey, Tony, CA, Dan, Len, J-Dog, Allan, Jules, Brian and, yes, even you Fokker -- you guys are alright in my book. Wasabi!
I'll be back.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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