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Random Thoughts


On my signal...


  • Some of my (defined risk) upside rentals are in the consumer (multinational) non-durables. I've admittedly got a quick trigger finger on 'em but that's a function of my big-picture bent more than anything else.

  • Scenario three in this morning's opener is more of a "further than anyone expected bear market rally" rather than a "new bull market" rally.

  • Most traders I speak with feel that expiration will buoy (or exacerbate) the upside. I understand their thinking (the front month protection will provide an underlying bid) but wanted to point out the "consensus trade."

  • A lot of hedgies are "buying into" the technology and banking conferences that begin this week.

  • Snaps to cousin Jake on stepping up Saturday and becoming a man. I could feel Ruby's pride smiling from above.

  • The NYSE breadth has edged towards a 2:1 positive reading.

  • Patience brings price and opportunity. Identify an actionable time frame and make sure your risk profile is an extension of that.

  • So. So what? So tell me... What 1986 flick's main characters were named Danny and Debbie? The first right answer sent to gets a kickin' Minyanville tee!

  • Do you love what you do for a living?

  • Does the tape conceivably "have room" on the upside? Yeah, the blow off potential is still there. Boo and I are lickin' our chops, though, and scanning for the right instruments. There's no fear in Mudville, friends. Stay sharp.

  • Yes, Mom, I omitted the multiple knee surgeries, the screen door finger slice and many other "situations" but I think the Minyans got the picture!

  • Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) feels like it caught a lot of traders leaning the wrong way.

  • Europe has rebounded off its worst levels and is plus/minus

  • Who's right in the derivative debate? My money is (literally) on our own guitar signing Mr. Buffett. I think Elmer is painting himself into a painful corner and it's only a matter of time before POOF!

  • The best fades are the toughest fades.

  • I don't have any May paper on. It's all June and beyond.

  • I saw the X-Men last night and, despite not seeing the first one, it was entertaining. Come to think of it, Fokker kinda looks like a young Wolverine.

  • The older I get, the more I "see" the manipulative ways of the world. It's sad, really... kinda like a lost innocence.

  • I keep hearing the Carly Simon tune in my head. "Capitulation. Ca-pit-u-la-a-tion is making me wait..."

  • Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) is not participating. That's the definition of a "heavy" stock and if (big if) we turn lower today, that'll be a name I look at for a quick downside schnitz.

  • While I'm not adding my arm to the bear costume yet, I'm getting a laundry list together for when I do. Maybe I'm dead wrong but I think that when this ends, it's gonna be fugly.

  • Timing, William Wallace, timing.

  • Jim Grant on television. Hey, he signed the guitar too!
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