Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Head Higher
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Cup O' Buzz - Todd Harrison - 3:12 PM
- Sorry for the laggage, my friends, as I was in an afternoon mindmeld with Jon "Dow 21,000 in by 2012" Markman.
- Could it happen? As I humbly offered during our discourse, "Sure, but not without significant slippage in the dollar."
- Is today a mirror image of yesterday's scrimmage? Tapes that are strong (weak) all day tend to end that way when breadth is 2:1 supportive.
- Flies in the try? Citi and JP Morgan are pretty in pink and the piggies (BKX) have almost flipped the crimson switch as well. Armageddon? Nope, not with Goldman up three beans, but certainly something to monitor as we put the puppy to bed.
- Will terror jitters trigger supply into the weekend? Perhaps--although it likely would have happened already. Still, defined risk removes emotion and in that regard, S&P 1498ish is right here, right now and very tight.
- American Psycho has to be one of the oddest movies of all time. By the way, has anyone ever seen Christian Bale and Scotto Reamer in the same room at the same time?
Retailers Not Playing Along - Jeff Macke - 12:22 PM
Note that while the rest of the tape recovers, the retailers are generally soft at mid-day. Nothing major but I'm seeing drops in Target (TGT), Wal-Mart (WMT) and even yesterday's winners like Jos. A Banks (JOSB). I suppose the "worst month since the Carter administration" deserved the respect of at least one day of follow through. For what it's worth, I'm still not buying 'em, despite my relatively sanguine view of the consumer (which is to say, I don't think the consumer is dead). Other things I'm pondering...
- "Less likely to be abused than Vicodin?" Purdue Pharma, the Oxycontin guys, got off easy at $600 million.
- Loved the headline in Foot Locker's (FL) press release last night: "Foot Locker Updates its First Quarter Earnings Estimate." Don't think of it as slashing estimates by 70%... we're just keeping y'all in the loop as to how things are going.
- JetBlue's (JBLU) David Neeleman gets canned for a three-month old operational hiccup and Wal-Mart's (WMT) Lee Scott gets $22 million for blaming gas prices three years in a row. One of those board of directors is totally dysfunctional, it's just not clear which.
Get That Feeling? - Sally Limantour - 10:03 AM
Does the mood feel a bit different to you or is it back to business as usual? My proprietary indicator, the TE is saying something is adrift. I can't show you a chart of it, but I can tell you it has served me well in the past. You will never guess what it is.
It is interesting to go back and look at the charts of May 10, 2006. That is when the big selling started in stocks and today is the one year anniversary of the drop last May when the DJIA was off by 180 and the FTSE lost 10%.
Between last night and this morning I don't remember as many different references supporting both inflation and deflation concerns. How about slow growth with rising demand for stuff? Stagflation has not come up as yet.
For you futures traders keep your eye on these prices for clues. If we capture these levels and begin to build value it will be short term supportive.
mini S&P (ES): 1507.75
mini DJ (YM): 13320
mini Nasdaq (NQ): 1895.75
mini Russell (AB): 828.30
The TE indicator is my tennis elbow and it flares up when I'm sensing a change coming in the market. Very scientific.
Fortune, Cookie - Jeffrey Cooper - 9:28 AM
After a significant sell day like Thursday where many key stocks broke support (former momentum leaders Google (GOOG) and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) to mention a couple) and others such as Terex Corp. (TEX) , FMC Technologies (FTI), Marathon Oil (MRO) and Southern Copper (PCU) appear to have carved out reversal bars, an UP opening is almost always a sell.
The best hope for Hoofy today would have been a hard down open that crawled back all day.
So I wouldn't give Hoofy too much slack here. I think Big Defense is still in order as these types of events usually crescendo and play out over three days---that's the bullish case. I wouldn't expect to see the bulls get bailed out if we stay below 1498--if the S&P can recapture 1502 and offset the trendline break then mazol but the minimum agenda still looks like a turn down in the Weekly Swing chart. Whether that will be today or next week we shall see. Obviously, if the market closes near its lows this week that will be easy to accomplish.
Bottom line, if we just get a pause day today but remain below 1498 I want to be short over the weekend as many times the market has a bit of a fuse and volatility expands, pauses and then explodes. If China panics, I don't think it will be a one day wonder this time but something a little zestier for Boo. Maybe a real bear market of a whole seven days.
Positions in TEX, MRO, PCU
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