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Random Thoughts


Is it me or does Monday through Friday seem like one long day?

  • I walked out of a breakfast meld with President Fish to find copper up 9%, silver up a finski (5%), gold up a full $20-spot and aluminum 3% higher. I sensed that hawks would ding this complex post-FOMC and while we surely saw bent beaks, I was as wrong as a song. After the group giggle to start the day, commodities reversed lower, halving their gains and planting the seeds of the mother of all reversals. I opined, on the Buzz, that we may have seen a short-term top in the context of a much broader secular bull run)

  • Since that rinse, however, the dollar has fallen off a cliff (1% off its morning high) and that has seemingly settled the metals. I may be wrong--and this may be crazy--but it sure seems like there's alotta 'gamesmanship' going on out there.

  • The Minyans in the Mountains early-bird special expires at the end of this month. We're gonna have a heckuva humdinga so grab your S'mores stick and head to the hills! A finer collection of human capital has never been assembled in a single spot--and yes, that includes you!

  • Meanwhile, the sniff sniff continues in hedge fund land. And, given the eyes and the action, I wouldn't be at all surprised.

  • Watch UNH--how it reacts to this SEC inquiry will speak volumes regarding the underlying supply/demand. As it stands, the big dawg is down 4%.

  • A snapshot of the action finds the S&P slightly below the all-important 1315 level and the NDX well below the nearest-term support (1680). NDX 1650 (200-day) and 1635 ('06 lows) are the next levels of lore for the four-letter freaks. Breadth is fugly, monsieur (2:1 negative on the S's and 3:1 negative for the Nazz) and our financial duopoly is supportive of further drippage (watch Citi $50).

  • I wanna keep two feet away from this guy!

  • A Minyan pinged me regarding my opener and offered that he had a serious deja vu--not from 2000, but from 2003, when bad news was absorbed and the tape powered higher. Again, and as I said, this could last for a while, I'm simply trying to make sure that ye faithful understand the whys and hows as opposed to focusing on the when (new highs arrive).

  • Take the time to tell Mom you love her this weekend. Some folks can only wish they had that opportunity.

  • "I see earlier comments on bulls comparing our situation to a goldilocks economy with low inflation etc. In the last year silver is up 215%, gold is up 80%, copper is up 170%, aluminum is up 77%. Golden Ben and the BLS have the official statistics sanguine through substitution, hedonics, and outright false algorithms (the higher oil prices go, the lower "core" inflation is stated). M3 is growing at an astounding 10% now despite the "show" of higher fed funds rate. Interestingly, once the discount rate has reached 6% (which it is now) there has been a correction in stocks basically 100% of the time. Japan bank lending is soaring. It is almost exclusively due to real-estate lending. Watch carefully the dollar/yen for signs of raising rates. When the yen rallies against the dollar, all that liquidity from the yen carry will wane." Professor John Succo on today's Buzz

  • Silver Bells. Silver Bells...

  • T-minus eight hours till MVHQ lets loose at the Knitting Factory charity event and we're all counting the hours (particularly Meehan). Tickets are $20 a pop so if you're in Gotham and you wanna cut a rug, feel free to join us as we support a great cause.

  • Keep an eye on Google as it's quietly losing by two touchdowns following yesterday's analyst meld.

  • The Cuban missive crisis?

  • While alotta eyes remain pegged to the inevitable all-time highs, I've got my right hand up as I manicure my risk. There are select names I wanna buy on dips (SunMicro comes to mind) and a slew on my wish list if and when some serious slippage occurs (WFT, metals, energy) but, as it stands--and as I sit--I continue to 'trade around' my short bias in the financials and have tight stops on my 'pure trades' (such as Microsoft).

  • Warning: Do not take this with Viagra or there can be no post-coital smoke!

  • Is it me or does Monday through Friday seem like one long day?

  • R.P.
Position in C, metals, SUNW, MSFT
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