Hump Day Madness!
The Minyans are coming, the Minyans are coming!
Poised for flight, wings spread bright
Spring from night into the sun
Don't stop to run
She can fly like a lie, she can't be outdone
It's a Super Hump Day Minyanfest as we fire up the furnace and fill it full of fury. There's a lot going on, big things afoot and much to discuss as we ready ourselves for the week's peak. As we're apt to do in the 'Ville, we wanna cover our bases and leave it all on the field as we ready for the fever of the flavor of a critter. So, without unncessary verbiage or further adieu, it's time to kick off our Keds and dive in the muck.
First folks first...
Mr. Collins and I melded late into the night and mapped out the agenda for Minyans in the Mountains II. It wasn't all that much work--the benefit of working with people you dig is that the time together is seamless. We met Succ at the Four Seas to pick his brain (it took a while), migrated back to Chez Harrison to kick it and ended up on my patio watching the blue skies of Manhattan and feeling blessed for our good fortune. Three hours, two Coronas (each) and one small (half pepperoni) pie later, we had the basis for something truly spectacular.
Our goal, now acheived, was to forge the framework for tonight's humdinga of a Minyan Mindmeld. Whenever you have thinkers like Jeff Saut, Steve Shobin, John Succo, Michael Santoli, Scott Reamer, Tony Dwyer, John Roque, Kevin Wassong, Greg Collins, Bob Grohskopf, Hot Rod Lankford and Bill Meehan (he's a legacy--but where's his pledge pin?), you realize two things in a hurry. One, you better stay humble as these fellas are sharp cookies and two, there's alotta good ideas among that clan that need to be shared. Most of these cats will be at our "Sundance of Finance" August 18-21st so this is our first official warm-up. And, as I know that inquiring Minyans wanna know, we'll have a registration page for Santa Barbara up within the next week or so.
This segment of the story would be incomplete if I failed to mention that Greg and I finished off the night with an XBOX MLB version of my (self-loathed) Yanks vs. his Melvin Mora led O's. We only played three innings (school night) but I'm proud to say that the Rocket and Mariano stifled the child and sent him home with some rather nasty grass stains on his knees. Cheer up Collins, we've got new talent coming to the 'Ville soon and perhaps they'll pitch a bit slower.
And then there's the tape...
The Cisco Kid (CSCO) arrived in town to try to invert Hoofy's frown. The report was "there" and I mean that in the most opaque possible way. Any sorta outlier woulda shaped the tape but this has a little something for everyone. While the tone and tenor seemed "fine," that's nothing new from Chambo & Co. Personally, I was looking for the patented "show me economy" or "were well positioned for the inevitable upturn" but that was more of a curious fancy than an actionable agenda. Cisco is Cisco, they matter to the I.T landscape but they're a pawn-as we all are-in a much bigger game of chess.
Still, Mon, ya gotta respect...
I pulled a leg out of my metaphorical fur late yesterday (leaving one leg or 25% conviction on the short side) in front of the unknown and as a function of price. While there was nothing on my eight screens to suggest an imminent reversal was afoot, there were three stealth elements that precipiated the migration. The first was S&P 1163 support, which is losing some techncial muster but still deserves a nod. The second was the aforementioned unknown (non-event) and the third was the nonsensical notion of turnaround Tuesday. I've seen too many one day wonders to dismiss this phenomenon and while it's more superstitious than serious, well, so am I at times.
Unfortunately, and taking one giant step back, we're still churning under recent resistance (DJIA 10400) and NDX 1460 (which happens to be the '05 downtrend as well). The N's acted better yesterday (as a function of the semicap traction) so please keep an eye on the four-letter freaks. I also wanna watch the metals as there's a point I'm gonna plunk down some coin and put some silver in the secret stash. My horizon is 10 years and I'm contemplating buying 25% of my position in the $6.50ish range (if and when and not advice). The risk to white lightnin'--and all commodities--is the whiffs of deflation that might emerge if the dollar catches a bid. I think, ultimately, we'll be forced to choose between buoyant markets or a strong dollar and, as the Fed targets psychology, my sense is that they'll favor the former 'till foreigners balk.
And there's so many more steps in our journey...
Last night, while on Bob Brooks Prudent Money Show, we discussed the financial landscape and the need for mainstream fiscal literacy. Perhaps I'm too honest at times--it's the Ruby in me so I'll make no apologies--but it basically laid out the massive disconnect between perception and reality. Bob referenced a column I scribed last week and read the following quote:
"We live in a world where people are conditioned to believe what they read, see and hear. Many platforms have an agenda, however, and tend to spin the truth to fit their best interests. Ratings, advertisements and product placement have seemingly stolen the show in the race towards the bottom line. There are plenty of good folks and honest vibes out there but we must discern what's real and what is noise."
Therein lies our task at hands, Minyans, as we build a community that we can be proud of. Someday, if Team Minyan executes, the 'Ville will be a place where young children can learn the basic tenets of finance, teens and college kids can prepare themselves for the world ahead and adults will continue to chill with Hoofy and Boo and assimilate the crosscurrents. We have two choices-we can face the music (together) and take responsibilities for our actions or we can outsource those decisions and live with the consequences. If you're reading this, I think you've already cast your vote.
Enjoy your journey today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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