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Point & Go Figure: US Dollar, Euro


Dollar for your thoughts?


Market Overview:
The NYSE Percent Above 50-day Moving Average Indicator remains in Xs, but as the line chart below shows it has curled down, an indication that a move lower for stocks may be coming.

NYSE Percent Above 50-day Moving Average Indicator

The Nasdaq Percent Above 50-day Moving Average Indicator is also in Xs, but it too has curled down as the line chart below shows and on a PnF basis this sets up a potential bearish triangle break.

Nasdaq Percent Above 50-day Moving Average Indicator

The High-Low Indices for the NYSE and Nasdaq continue to hold in Xs.

The longer-term bullish percents for the NYSE and Nasdaq Composite are both still in Xs, but the larger pattern of lower highs also remains intact, a significant long-term bearish divergence.

The more narrow S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 Bullish Percents both are negative, each in a column of Os.

Charts of Interest:
US Dollar Index
(Chart courtesy Thomson Financial)

The US Dollar has two potential catalysts today - the FOMC announcement at 2:15 EST and the Treasury Forex Report at 4 p.m. EST. Either or both could move the dollar. The technicals suggest any dollar movement will likely be higher. Note that the TD-Combo buy countdown (in green on the chart) is at 12 with a potential 13 registering as soon as tomorrow.

Euro Spot Index
(Chart courtesy Thomson Financial)

As one would expect, if the dollar is nearing a technical inflection point on the downside, the euro is nearing a technical inflection point on the upside. The TD-Combo sell countdown is at 12.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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