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Intraday Flash



Note: the following analysis is formulated as an assimilation of Fibonacci, DeMark, Elliot Wave and other technical indicators. It is offered as education and not intended as advice in any way.


Today's impulsive move down is being confirmed by market internals as well as momentum. And for the INDU and the Nasdaq Composite (CCMP), the 3/24 lows have been broken, implying the next important Fibonacci support area that "could" provide an important bounce is INDU 9824 and CCMP 1822 (not advice). The SPX and the NDX have not violated their 3/24 lows but it seems entirely reasonable to expect them to soon enough.

The wave count in the very near term implies that we are currently in a wave (iii) down from the 4/27 peak which will resolve at lower prices and not before we see important non confirmations (in up/down volume, breadth, hourly and 34 minute momentum measures, and ticks) that would suggest a multi-day bounce. So any rallies that take a 3-wave, overlapped form "could" be sold for a move to the lower levels cited in the headline (again, never advice).

The next important support levels for the SPX and NDX (assuming they too break their 3/24 lows which is a high probability event) are SPX 1074 and NDX 1317. Assuming our current wave interpretation is correct (that we're in at least a wave (iii) down from the 4/27 peaks), then lower supports in the SPX 1040/50, INDU 9700, and NDX 1300/1320 area are expected to eventually be seen. There are a number of bearish interpretations currently but the dominant one is the wave (III) down scenario we have been following (see this AM's note for a chart with this interpretation).

So we'll continue to look for lower prices via this interpretation unless prices indicate otherwise. The analysis suggests the proper bias is to the downside and then wait to see what type of bounce develops to determine which bearish scenario is most probable. We are cognizant of the climactic-type action in breadth and down vs up volume and it must be respected, but the break of important Fibonacci supports suggest lower prices could be in order before a material bounce develops.

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