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Random Thoughts

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If you're not seeing the ball of late, clear your sheets.

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  • Did you just double dip that shtick? I did--and I am--but despite posting this little ditty on Friday, it's worth a repeat for those who took a three day weekend.

  • Silver Standard (SSRI), a former staple in my once metal-laden portfolio, filed to sell six million shares this morning. If the stock reacts the same way Apex Silver (SIL) did after it filed--and it hasn't yet--I'll be dipping my toes anew in this brew.

  • "My firm has been following the commercials (i.e. 'smart money') crowd in the COT data forever. There have been a few notable data points along the way. For example, right around the important top in the S&P in 2000, they got HEAVILY short the market for the first time, all the way down to about short 100,000 S&P contracts. We have been tracking and talking here on the Buzz in the last few weeks their position in the long bond, and the fact that it has been increasing. Well, see this chart which shows the hedgers not only long but OBSCENELY LONG." Professor Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz

  • NYSE Breadth, after gettin' jiggy this morning, has migrated back towards the flat line.

  • At the very least, these services should be grandfathered to the old cable rate?

  • The financials are pretty in pink--both the banks and brokers--after Friday's wishbone window dressing.

  • "Given the increasing attention paid in the popular media to the woes of the USD, I feel compelled to mention that my firm's work, as it did in late 2004, indicates a strong probability that the USD is NOT yet complete with its mean reverting bounce off the Jan 2005 lows. There are several complexity-derived support targets in the 83-85 area over the next 1-3 months. In time, the dollar, for all the reasons many on the 'Ville have suggested for several years, will probably be one of the best shorts in the markets. But no security, no matter how flawed macroeconomically, goes down in a straight line. And the USD is no exception. If a deflationary credit contraction is underway (as we strongly believe to be the case as evidenced by, among other things, the industrial commodity silver), the USD is likely to benefit from a risk-aversion that will in due course harm stocks and other risk instruments in a serious way." Professor Scott Reamer on today's Buzz

  • Level Lore? The eyes have it as Hoofy attempts to morph former resistance (S&P 1315) into newfound support.

  • When love comes to town, make sure love is allowed in your town!

  • The most important stock on my eight screens? Citigroup, after the buff and brazen run the last few sessions and in front of a massive technical level ($50).

  • If you subscribe to the "dollar vs. everything else" thesis (which is admittedly myopic but pertinent nonetheless), keep your eyes on the squalor. As I pinged on the Buzz--and independent of Scotto's vibes--I wouldn't be shocked to see a Snapper attempt in the dollar. The question, of course, is whether we see the attendant slippage in the asset class dance.

  • Seasonality? No, not football, the May stray....for what it's worth.

  • Tricks of the Trade: I generally like to let the first half hour pass before taking the pulse of the tape as it offers a "truer" read.

  • If you're not seeing the ball of late, clear your sheets. That has an uncanny ability to provide a proper perspective.

  • Watch XAU 160ish for the metal shares. It's a multi-year high and a level of technical lore. As for Silver Standard (SSRI)? I think I just heard a burp (+1.5%).

  • What does it tell you if BofA bumped up Goldman earnings estimates for next quarter by a full buck and the stock is down? I've been trading this name from the short side but, given the $6 drop in the last eight hours of trading, I've rotated my risk to other plays in the group.

  • Do you think the critters would dig Canada?

  • I just spent some time at MIM Central (read: Vanessa's office) and have been told that we're quickly chewing through the Vail Cascade room inventory. Just an fyi...


  • R.P.
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