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Whips and Trains


Good luck, Minyans, and fare ye well!


I wish I was a headlight, on a North bound train
I wish I was a headlight, on a North bound train
I'd shine my light through the cool Colorado rain

(Grateful Dead)

I should have known better. No sooner than did I praise Fokker than he looked up from his hole and said "Hey boss, I need a vacation." Exsqueeze me? Dude -- stick around long enough to look at tomorrow's unemployment data and then we'll talk! I know that today's school girl chatter has you all ferklempt but honestly, kid, tomorrow's your big chance. Step up!

In spite of the whips and trades, it's a nonevent day and that's a resilient showing in the face of the drippy dollar and flaccid economics. The shrugfest paints a picture of frustration for Boo's crew as they had the ammo but couldn't shoot to kill. I've heard chatter that the CBOE electronic feed (it went down midday) was partially responsible for the lack of liquidity (and potentially exacerbated the upside action) but I'm not sure if that's the case. There were alligators lurking, underneath bids and pressy shorts. Taken together, it didn't add up to a melty session.

There's a host of data due out tomorrow and it'll be interesting to see if the Minxy "bend not break" persona can withstand further downside confirmation. I've been of the belief that our economic woes and bear market blues are independent of the Iraqi conflict (or conclusion thereof) but, thus far, that view appears to be in the minority. Time will tell, I suppose, but in the meantime, the onus is on us to adapt.

In my absence tomorrow, keep an eye on our trusty tells (dollar, financials, semis, breadth) and important levels (BKX 800, S&P 900, NDX 1100) and remember that discipline trumps conviction. I haven't spoken to many pros who are enjoying themselves these days but that's consistent with the weeding out process we've long discussed. Take a deep breath and understand that our journey is a marathon and not a sprint.

Mucho Snaps to the entire team on the unveiling of the University's staff today. I trust that you'll find the content and style consistent with what you've come to expect in Minyanville and, take me at my word, it's only just begun. There's more to life than trading and there will be more to Minyanville than finance. If we're to preach balance, we must practice it -- and our humble little town will be a reflection of that.

I'm gonna scoot as I've got a train waiting to take me to the warm hugs and innocent smiles of my niece and nephew. There was a time in my career when I would have NEVER let Beeks dance without me but I've learned that it's the times you CAN'T take off that you need it most. Besides, the market will be here on Monday -- the chance to introduce my pops to the kids is a once in a lifetime event.

Have a peaceful weekend.

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