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Season's Greetings

By

Fear the turtle!

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To Everything
Turn, turn, turn
There is a season
Turn, turn, turn


(The Byrds)

I've gotta tell ya, Minyans, I'm a big-picture bear and I truly believe that this is gonna turn out very messy. However, timing is everything in this business and the Minx may not be ready to roll yet. The warning signs are surely there -- the dollar, the twisty stochastics, the complacency/bullishness -- but my "eyes" see what you see: They act dry.

This is a forum for sharing and, as such, I'll always put out my honest read. It's been chilly of late -- this we know -- but trading mojo, as anything else, is cyclical. As I preach the importance of taking a step back and deep breath, I'm planning on heading down to Baltimore tonight with a flattish pad and a clear mind. Would I trade it differently if I were in? I'm not sure, but that's a moot point. My risk is marginal and, as such, I've got to undress from the fur. Jeez, I hope Amtrak doesn't mind naked passengers!

The breadth (and banks) have flattened and BKX 800 is (once again) teasing us from above. I think they'll spill but that may not be today's (or tomorrow's) business. I've left a handful of gamma (I continue to feel these levels of volatility will prove to be an opportunity) but, as I've said, my delta risk is muted. In other words, I'm gonna trade my risk for a few hugs from Maia and Bradley and, regardless of the price action, there will be no regrets.

I know that, despite the educational nature of this community, some of you are looking for direction. I'll always offer my honest read but, please remember, our goal is to share our thought process and add value to your own. Cop out? Nah, just honesty, and that integrity will remain a hallmark of Minyanville for as long as we're around.

Good luck into the home stretch, my friends, and fare ye well.
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