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Season's Greetings

By

Fear the turtle!

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To Everything
Turn, turn, turn
There is a season
Turn, turn, turn


(The Byrds)

I've gotta tell ya, Minyans, I'm a big-picture bear and I truly believe that this is gonna turn out very messy. However, timing is everything in this business and the Minx may not be ready to roll yet. The warning signs are surely there -- the dollar, the twisty stochastics, the complacency/bullishness -- but my "eyes" see what you see: They act dry.

This is a forum for sharing and, as such, I'll always put out my honest read. It's been chilly of late -- this we know -- but trading mojo, as anything else, is cyclical. As I preach the importance of taking a step back and deep breath, I'm planning on heading down to Baltimore tonight with a flattish pad and a clear mind. Would I trade it differently if I were in? I'm not sure, but that's a moot point. My risk is marginal and, as such, I've got to undress from the fur. Jeez, I hope Amtrak doesn't mind naked passengers!

The breadth (and banks) have flattened and BKX 800 is (once again) teasing us from above. I think they'll spill but that may not be today's (or tomorrow's) business. I've left a handful of gamma (I continue to feel these levels of volatility will prove to be an opportunity) but, as I've said, my delta risk is muted. In other words, I'm gonna trade my risk for a few hugs from Maia and Bradley and, regardless of the price action, there will be no regrets.

I know that, despite the educational nature of this community, some of you are looking for direction. I'll always offer my honest read but, please remember, our goal is to share our thought process and add value to your own. Cop out? Nah, just honesty, and that integrity will remain a hallmark of Minyanville for as long as we're around.

Good luck into the home stretch, my friends, and fare ye well.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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