From our family to yours, have a most peaceful evening!
I picked up my bag, I went looking for a place to hide
When I saw Carmen and the Devil walking side by side
I said "Hey Carmen, come on, let's go downtown"
She said "I gotta go but Boo can stick around"
Well, my friends, if there was ever a day of mixed emotions, this was surely it. The Minx was up on a spike this morning and it looked like a moon shot was in the cards. She then turned hard and it looked like a melt was inevitable. Now? She's just toying with everyone as she blips and dips the closing bell. Saucy, Béarnaise!
If you pull up our trusty 21-day charts, you'll see that a rather defined trading range has emerged. Let's call 'em S&P 840-900 and NDX 1020-1100 and file it in the back of our trading minds. Once you've done that, let's turn our attention to today's action.
What concerns Boo, and he's been discussing this with me all day, is the dry action in the financials. Yes, the stochastics are red-zoning but they act like they're under accumulation. As my friend Slaino taught me, trading is a simple game. They'll go up when there are buyers and down when there are sellers. And right now, it feels as if buyers are lurking around. I'm still long puts in some of these names (and I want to stay that way) but we must always respect the action.
The other bullish element -- for the record -- is the breadth. Despite the heavy hands during the day, the internals bent but they never broke. Hoofy will argue that it's a constructive sign and regardless of my (bearish) posture, I'd have a hard time arguing with him.
Why, then, do I insist on keeping my leg in the furry costume? Partly because I don't believe, partly because there's event risk and partly because I'm trading "in between." Don't get me wrong, my job requirement is very simple: I'm paid to make money and at the end of the year, it doesn't matter if it's on the long or short side. If I really believed in my heart of hearts that it was up, up and away, I'd climb on board faster than you could say "Fokker wears panties." I don't, I'm not and he might. Follow?
Either way, we'll figure it all out tomorrow. I'm gonna hop and turn my attention to my closing risk, the pending earnings and, hopefully, a relaxing night. I sincerely hope you're all managing this mess and, as we edge towards the closing bell, make decisions consistent with what YOU believe while allowing for a margin of error. After all, the only true wisdom comes with knowing we know truly nothing.
Have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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