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Sniffy the Dog


Define your time frame and trade to win!


The Minx springs to life and Hump Day in Minyanville is underway. The focus on every trading desk? The center of Baghdad, naturally, and it's diverting attention away from the Minx. We must surely monitor the developments (psychology) but, please, don't lose sight of our mission -- we've got a battle of our own brewing.

The early test lower (thus far) held our technical levels and you can almost see the tension in the air. They "want" to trade higher -- the breadth in the NYSE is steadily improving, the banks found bids below and they seemingly can't get them down. There are a handful of ways for you to approach this action and what you choose -- and how you choose to do it -- depends on your individual trading style.

While the pre-market futures searched for her lithium, I walked through the potential outcomes today -- stiff lift, moderate rally, wax and wane, marginally down, meltage -- and devised my strategy. I see all sides of the coin and, as such, I'll widen the scales a bit on my put purchases. As it stands, however, I do want to use rallies as an opportunity to add cheap May puts.

There's been a lot of chatter regarding the VIX as it violates 30 and I wanted to quickly touch base on it. Yes, it appears as if the chart is breaking down and yes, there's a chance it's searching for a new trading range. I would remind you, however, that each and every time we thought the VIX didn't matter, we end up looking back and realize that it did.

Finally, the Investors Intelligence bull/bear ratio came out this morning and the bulls have increased to 51.1 (vs. 47.2), the bears have decreased to 31.1 (from 34.8) and the correction camp remained basically unchanged. While this isn't an actionable day-trading tool, it's yet another "flag" that we'll point to (in hindsight) should the market get smacked.

Do I think it does? Yes, I most certainly do. Can I tell you from what level? No, I'm sorry I can't... but I'll always tell you what I'm doing and these are my current thoughts. While we all want to catch every move, it's unrealistic to think we can. I continue to sense that the market is edging towards a compelling set up (lower) and while I can see a continuation higher, I'm gonna be very tight with my approach.

Keep an eye on bonds (slipping) and the dollar (flat) as we continue to find our way through today's muck. And as always, I hope this finds you well.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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