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Smell Test


Watch that breadth... it tells the internal tale!


The Minx springs to life and a new day of flickering ticks is upon us. A couple of quick observations from the front lines:

The semis stand out on the sell side (down 2%) and that's weighing on four-letter land. THE level, me thinks, is NDX 1045 and I'm using that as a de facto sell stop. The tone on the big board is relatively better with the banks trying to exert leadership. I'm keying off the brokers in that regard, so you know, as I'm involved with the group.

Are you too big in any one position? The smell test that I use is "Am I in a position to use price to my advantage?" In other words, if the market moves against you, can you effectively scale into better prices? If the answer is yes, then your cool like Fonzi. If not, you likely need to manicure.

I'm "wary" of the upside try and have used the dip to try a little Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQ) gamma (buying the underlying against my puts). Again, 1045 is my fish or cut bait zone. I'm gonna keep both legs in the bear fur as a function of the Red Sox but I'm scanning for an actionable upside stop level for yesterday's appendage. BKX 750? Not sure... but that's my thought at first blush.

Watching the dollar, breadth, bonds and Fokker... I always gotta watch Fokker!

Be back.

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