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Freaky Friday Random Thoughts


This is gonna be some humdinga, Minyans!

  • Strong economic data? The Matador Crowd better have the heart to handle it!

  • Wasn't it Professor Jason Goepfert who said to be wary of a false breakout (higher) before a meatier move lower? (Nice eyes kid)

  • Along those lines, watch S&P 1295 as that was the "basing" level for the prior 15 sessions.

  • A gorilla walked into the SunMicro pit this morning and sold 110,000 October 4 calls (at $1.45) to buy 255,000 July 5 calls (.625). I've heard of rolling "up and out" but rolling "up and in?" Perhaps a perceived catalyst is looming?

  • South Florida Minyans might wanna swing by Dirty South Cycles this Sunday April 9th from 1pm-4pm. Minyan Tommy Carden, who mentored me as a Morgan yute, will be hosting his grand opening fete. It'll be covered by Wild 95.5 radio and it'll have a host of fun activities that will donate proceeds to the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education. Thanks Tommy and mucho mazel on your new venture!

  • Boo limped into my office this morning and asked me if higher rates were the only catalyst for a downdraft. "Nah," I said, "While that's a potential structural catalyst, I think the left field threat is psychological."

  • If anyone can please tell me why Peek Freens are so damn serious, I would be much obliged.

  • Zed might not be dead but the internals are awfully red. NYSE breadth is worse than 3:1 negative.

  • The metals (XAU -2.5%), semis (-1.5%) and drillers (OSX -1.6%) are getting particularly pounded.

  • Some Point & Go Figure Vibes from the incomparable Pepe Depew:
    • A 25x3 PnF chart of the DJIA shows support at 11,125, and 11,100 breaks a triple bottom.
    • Key support for SPX is 1295, with 1290 breaking a triple bottom.
    • The NDX has support (former resistance) at 1700.
    • The Russell 2000 (RUT) is already on a PnF sell signal, and will break a new double bottom with a move to 756.
    • The Dow Transportation Average has met its long-term PnF objective of 4710, and has also registered a DeMark sell signals on the weekly and monthly charts.

  • Have you ever tried to explain what "mutually exclusive" means? I mean, have you really, truly thought about it?

  • I'm trying to do some homework in front of tonight's third row bo-jangle!

  • If your firm believes that you're a reflection of the company you keep and wanna surround themselves with the very best in human capital, let us know and we'll fire off a sponsorship doc/agenda for the upcoming Minyans in the Mountains III. This is gonna be some humdinga, Minyans, and it promises to feature the best of the Wall Street breed.

  • The financials aren't immune to the swoon but they're not rollin' over like rover just yet. In particular, I'll note Citigroup as it tickles the flat line.

  • Meanwhile, over on the Buzz (11:07)...

    Well I used to love her...
    But it's all over now.

    I don't know If I'm simply excited for tonight's critter mix or if that tune is resonating for a reason but today's action has triggered some hummage. There's alotta folks out there scratchin' their keppe, wondering how the tape can sell off on such a "robust" number. As I offered this morning, I'm not so sure that the catalyst is economical. It may--just may--be the first hint of a confidence crisis

    Crisis? Are you mad? With the averages tickling multi-year highs? I know, it's a far flung thought, but I was thinking about the Russian Ruble mess the other day and remembered, with great clarity, those I know smirking and saying "Russia doesn't matter." It didn't, of course. Until it did.

    When I was visiting the savvy soothsayin' sommelier last Halloween, we spoke about the axiom that "when the President is in trouble, the market is in trouble." Now, at the risk of stirring some right-handed Minyans (not intentionally), I'll offer that Dubya is in trouble. It may be masked by the heretofore green screens (the stock market is the world's largest thermometer) but there are only so many straws that this camel can bear.

    This isn't a political forum, nor do I have an interest in creating one. But given the role of sentiment and psychology in the price action of financial asset classes, it would be myopic and, dare I say, disingenuous to ignore the evolving script. You don't have to agree with it--you simply have to be aware of it. At some level, the probability of political dissent will filter into the flickering ticks.

    As always, I hope this finds you well.

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