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Weir Bear?


Will the porridge be too hot, too cold or just right?


Well the joint was jumpin'
Going 'round and 'round
Hey! Realin' and a rockin'
What a crazy sound!

(Grateful Dead)

Good morning and welcome back to the flickering flack. There's a lot going on and we've got much to do as we settle into the Minyanville Zoo. The first week of the second quarter has been a fluxy affair as we've whipped and tripped around several seminal levels. All eyes now turn to our Breakfast with Beeks as we ready for the much anticipated jobs report. Will the porridge be too hot, too cold or just right for critters hungry for some directive? We'll know soon enough as we roll up our sleeves and get set for a most freaky Friday.

As I've been burning the candle at both ends readying to unleash MIM3--ok, I've tossed the entire ball of wax into the fire--I'm gonna invoke my literary license and share some quasi-random vibes as we prepare for the final fifth of our weekly freak. Donke shoen on the continued patience, Minyanship and community as we set the stage for our Sundance of Finance. Alas, I's time to focus as the hounds are set to howl.

  • I couldn't help notice a blurb in today's Wall Street Journal highlighting the fact that "amid broad expectations that gold is going higher, contracts for later delivery touched $600/oz." Now, I'll be the first to admit that I underperform in a momentum driven market but it seems that too many Dorothys are following the yellow brick road. I still believe that precious metals are in the throws of a powerful secular market but I was much more comfortable as a glitterpuss last summer before the XAU rallied almost 60%. Perhaps I'm over-thinking and overtrading (see below) but, as Minyans know, I punted a slew of stuff last week and will look to regain exposure when the opportunity arises.

  • And yes, I've read Richard Russell's salient thoughts several times as I've been there and done that (in energy, after seeing the Texas two-step in 2003 but not surfing the black seas for all they were worth). There is a lesson in that, however, as I continue to trade both those sectors from the long side (while tending to trade most tech and financials from the short side). The latter matter, as you know, has been an equity enema of late but defined risk keeps me on my feet.

  • Rotation Station seems to be a daily dance as money migrates and traders jockey between sector plays. This has become more pronounced of late, offering good trading opportunities for the quick and nimble. I think we're in the midst of a stair-step towards an alpha hunt as monolithic asset class movements migrate to inter-sector rotation and, in time, will dissipate to single stock opportunities. Some might say that we're already there with the VXO playing little league and perhaps they're right. Back in 2000, I offered that the opposite of love isn't hate--it's apathy--and while market participants are far from apathetic, the other side of compression might very well be.

  • Speaking of rotations, it wasn't long ago that we were musing that Google and Apple were unloved, out of favor and coiled like spoiled children. Sure 'nuff, a lil' S&P inclusion here, a bit of Windows dressing there and voila! they've again gained master beta status. My point? While overall market volatility is screaming like Marcel Marceau, volatility lives in individual issues with, well, individual issues. Just be careful with the cult stocks, Minyans, as crowded situations tend to brand the herds as piggies.

  • And Finally, a Minyan Mailbag to start the session:

    "Toddo, I thought MiM2 was the best conference I have ever attended (and I've been to several dozen). I'm really looking forward to MiM3. However, I would like to offer a simple suggestion that I think would make MiM3 an even better learning experience: If possible, make the breakout sessions longer to allow more time for open discussion.

    For many attendees at MiM2, the substantive conversation with professors is the best part of the trip. The problem was that the breakout sessions were too short--the final whistle would blow just as the professor and attendees were starting to warm up to each other. And it seemed downright rude to try to corner a professor during one of the many social events (not to mention the fact that it would also mean missing out on the fun).

    Anyway, that's my suggestion, for what it's worth. Look forward to seeing y'all in August Minyan Robert."

    Minyan Robert,

    Thanks for the vibes and they're duly noted. We're doing our best to pack a LOT of content into a few short days--which is both a blessing and a curse when you've got such a talented collection of human capital. When you see the MIM3 line-up, you'll be very excited--it mixes a lot of familiar friends with fresh faces and a slew of buy side hitters. As we "listen" to our own, we've extended the breakout sessions this year and broadened the depth of the content. I am certain you'll see a cumulative uptick.

    Also, please remember that the purpose of our retreat is to jump start relationships, networks and friendships. Those connections should carry from the conference hall to the golf course, softball field, ranch parties and beyond. To be a Minyan is to be mindful of our journey and, for many, the journey through the mountains has opened new doors and, perhaps more importantly, some new perspective. Looking forward to seeing you there and we should be opening the doors (and sharing the agenda) shortly.




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