Bullets Over Broadway
The mechanics of the swing always trump the results of the at-bat.
There are not many who remember
They say a handful still survive...
To tell the world about, the way the lights went out
And keep the memory alive....
Yesterday morning, we touched on the thought that the previous fifteen days was starting to feel more and more like a basing (above previous support at S&P 1295). It's a valid probability, given the action in the financials, trannies and small caps, and one that was also offered by uber-Minyan John Roque on the Buzz yesterday.
The risks to the up, up and away scenario? Beeks, for one, as he'll be dropping off the employment report tomorrow morning and earnings, as confession season will soon be upon us. And then there's Professor Goepfert's vibe, which could conceivably find Neal Page and Del Griffith going the wrong way!
"I'm reading more and more about a "top" in gold and silver, but, of course, I've been reading about that elusive top for months. I'll tell you the truth, it's almost impossible to call an intermediate top during a powerful primary bull market. And a powerful bull market is what we've got now in the precious metals sector (in the base metals too, as a matter of fact) so think twice if you think you can "out-trade" it." Richard Russell.
As discussed, after lightening up on a slew of exposure last week, I've been light and tight during this week's fight. Still, I've had alpha issues as some of my shorts have been acting better than my selection of longs. I peeled out of some of my financial puts yesterday as a function of discipline, taking a small nick on the position, and with the knowledge that the mechanics of the swing always trump the results of the at-bat.
Thoughts on the day? Time biding. With a big, bad unknown looming overnight, I wouldn't be shocked to see posturing, positioning and pondering. Watch our tells--the financials, breadth, homies, semis, nets--along with our levels (1310). Names in the news--namely Merck, Lehman (2 for 1) and 3M--should also be monitored for relative reactions.
I've known Kevin Wassong (a.k.a. President Fish) for almost 20 years. I met him at my first class during my first day at
Syracuse , became fraternity brothers, roomed together and have stayed uber-tight ever since. I watched him with pride as he climbed the media ladder and founded the digital division at JWalter Thompson. If there's a purer visionary in the digital media space, I've yet to come across him or her. I am proud to call him my brother and humbled to have him helming the Minyan ship. Please take the time to absorb his vibes. He's that good at what he does and that much better at who he is. R.P.
And finally, as I've gotten alotta feedback from Buzzers on this late day post, I wanted to share it with ye faithful anew...
Help I'm steppin' into the twilight zone
The place is a madhouse
Feels like being cloned
We may break out. The tape could, conceivably, go a lot higher, either as a function of reflation, dollar devaluation or a minxy mechanism that few understand. I'm a trader and, as such, the onus is on me to find the right opportunities at the right time and manage my risk/reward. I got lucky in the energy and metals. I've found a few nuggets that performed well. And I've had my fair share of bad trades. So please understand that I'm not predisposed to a particular bent when I share this vibe.
I'm having some serious deja vu as I watch some of the sports in financial media. The very same mindset I expressed concern over in 2000--that people were viewing profiting as a right rather than a privilege--seems to be back in vogue. Buy first, do your work later--there'll be another buyer coming along soon. It's disturbing, really, if for no other reason than we've seen this movie before.
I stand to gain a lot if we're in the throws of a secular bull market. We all do. But I'll caution you to remain aware of the risks and, more so, to question the motivation of your information providers--particularly in the digital age. At the end of the day, the onus is on YOU to make intelligent and lucid decisions. I guarantee that the 'pundits' pounding certain tables won't reimburse you if they're wrong. I know, as I've seen it before.
Have a great night and please, hear what I'm saying. My only agenda is to provoke thought, not shape it.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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