Cow Chow Chow!
By Todd Harrison Apr 06, 2005 2:52 pm
Hello cowgirl in the sand
Is this place at your command?
Can I stay here for a while?
Can I see your sweet, sweet smile?
The afternoon fray is finding its way as the critters all search for something to say. Despite some fright in the beta space (note the homies as they pin HGX 480), Hoofy has managed to put on a brave face for the better part of the session. The NYSE breadth and traction in the financials support a firm close but-again-a slew of resistance looms above. It starts with NDX 1500ish but the true test rests shortly thereafter.
It's quite possible that the fundamentals (starting with Alcoa (AA)) will tip the scales either way as an avalanche of earnings is set to start. Therein lays the importance of properly weighing the four primary metrics (fundies, technicals, psychology, structural). The macro noise has been at the forefront of the trading radar as General Motors (GM), Amer Int'l (AIG) and Aunt Fannie (FNM) have reminded us of the fragility of the financial fabric. It's important to remember that these elements are "out there" (regardless of the picture that corporate America paints) and demonstrate discipline through a proactive risk-profile.
The last few sessions have been low volume affairs and while that may be a function of the fantabulous east coast weather, the "hands over eyes" assessment is traditionally bearish. Whenever you have selling of serious merchandise followed by light lifts into resistance, it typically means that another wave will be paved through Red Dye. The fact that alotta catalysts remain to be seen only adds uncertainty to an already uncertain tape.
As it stands, Boo has been patient as he awaits S&P 1200 and he's not getting chopped up (for a change). The other side of the coin, of course, is that he could be implementing a strategy that scales into downside exposure with a "stop" above his technical framework. The risk he faces is missing his trade but he knows, as do we, that opportunities are made up easier than losses. It doesn't matter how many trades we make, Minyans, it only matters that we have a high percentage on the trades we choose to make.
Fare ye well into the bell and have a very peaceful night.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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