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Auntie Em! Auntie Em!

By

Tell Dorothy she's only allowed to have one!

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Same old song
Just a drop of water in an endless sea
All we do
Crumbles to the ground, though we refuse to see


(Kansas)


So let's see---the tin man needs a heart, the lion desperately needs courage and the scared bear needs a brain? That's what the Wizard of Minx seems to think as we follow the road and the story is told. Perhaps that road is paved with gold and it'll be clear when our fate unfolds? I can't tell you for certain, my friends, but I wanna quickly address this game of chess.

Is Minyanville too bearish?

I can't speak for my fellow professors (some of whom have been spot on through the twisty turns) but I'll certainly discuss my stance. I was clearly too cautious during the '03 moon shot and there's no excuses or hiding from that fact. If we're to focus on the journey rather than the destination, I missed a helluva trip through Matador City. Mea culpa--I own that (or didn't, as the case may be) and accept the consequences of my own choices.

But what about now? With a quarter down in our humble town, the averages are up a couple of percent and strugglin' to overcome the hump (what hump?). We know that guys like Soros, Buffett, Templeton, Gross and Rogers are pretty smart cookies and they've pitched tent in Red Dye Junction. Further, when you have sharp and sharper guys like Tom DeMark and Bob Prechter pointing in the same direction, it's compelling in a furry sorta way.

But is it imminent?

That's the gazillion dollar question and the difference between being wrong or being early. Brian Reynolds (who has nailed it like a hammer) is sanguine as long as the corporate bond market offers the green light and, thus far, Daisy has plenty of grass to graze. That is, of course, his educational analysis (and not intended as advice) but it paints the other side of the considerable coin. This could be a long, hard and very frustrating road for all sides of the Minyanville menagerie.

So define your time frame and identify key tells that correspond to that particular profile. Active Minyans can watch the breadth, banks, semis, cyclicals, small caps...you know, the trading guides we monitor daily. Longer-term Minyans may wanna look at rolling up "stops" or using volatility for risk definition (either as a stock replacement or as a cheap hedge). Just appreciate the risks and understand that you can dance yourself silly as long as you've got a chair to sit in once the music stops.

Alcoa (AA:NYSE) will officially sound the starter's gun tonight and begin a very tough coupla weeks. For my part, and just so ya know, I'll be flying to Rubyville tomorrow night to share a margarita with my fantastic grandmother. So while I'm practicing what I preach, Thursday's 'Ville will be in the capable hands of my fellow professors. Thanks kindly for understanding and, of course, thank you for being a Minyan!

Fare ye well into the bell.

R.P.

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