One of Those Days
Thanks Laurie! White light to your family!
Gold $423 Silver $7.00 Tuesday 5th April, 11pm Sydney
G'day. Have you ever had one of those really great weekends where you actually feel like you've had a day or two off? The sun is shining and unusually warm for the time of year, the kids are happy with you and what you're doing, the wrong horse wins but you don't care, the scrambled eggs set just right and the local bottle shop has a special on your favourite wine? And then ..... it turns to crap at 11pm on the Sunday night? I just had one.
Just when things look like they're turning your way, something jumps up and bites your ar$e. The same happens in the markets. Don't get comfortable!
The Pope died. Fair enough, he had a good dig. As a good Irish Catholic, Jesuit educated, son of a trainee Brigidine nun (that's another story as well), it was sad that the world lost a good man, yet not unexpected. What I didn't expect was my Mum calling at 11pm on Sunday to inform me that Dad had been admitted to Sutherland District hospital with Atrial Fibrilations or something that I can't pronounce or spell. Heart stuff. Not what I needed or wanted to hear on my "Saturday night". My apologies for missing yesterday, as I had my mind on other things.
It's funny how there are people in your life who you think are indestructible and will never fall down. My Dad is one of those people and it makes you think, lots. He's ok now and at home (they needed the bed), once they got it ticking properly again. It's something to do with electric impulses that send his very healthy heart into weird spasms. The drive down south to Mum's at midnite was rough. Sometimes ya just gotta be there. Anyway, we're all back at the coalface, for the time being.
I note that Paul Wolfowitz is the new head of the World Bank. This is not a political comment, rather a dry observation from down here in "the dark", from Sydney, Australia. I checked their website to suss out their charter and was astounded at the first point of their whole "purpose". Surely there was ONE other person in the world more suitable to the task than he, knowing his previous recent involvement in "administrative affairs" - whatever.
-(i) To assist in the reconstruction and development of territories of members by facilitating the investment of capital for productive purposes, including the restoration of economies destroyed or disrupted by war, the reconversion of productive facilities to peacetime needs and the encouragement of the development of productive facilities and resources in less developed countries.
Cynics would suggest that this is a "puppet" appointment but I would never be so bold. The world certainly is a funny old place these days, isn't it?
Gold looks like it will retest the sub 420 level after another quick shot at $426-8 then 432. I guess the trendline off the $385ish low back around August '04, that kicks in at around $418 off the daily chart, will be the next good level of support. (especially if my mate's call, that I mentioned last Friday, gets some giddy-up about it). The 200DMA has been pretty solid in the spot market at $422 and we saw another bounce off that level again on Friday (NY time). The new futures contract is now June and trades about 2.35-50 over spot (and declining every day as maturity runs into the spot date). I'd be very surprised to see sub $416 any time soon. Just thinking aloud and never advice.
The silver low back in Jan '05, when used as a trendline base for recent market movements on a daily chart, hits at about $6.85 and the 200DMA is pretty much the same. This level should provide VERY solid support given the fundamentals of the physical market but ya just never know once the paper cowboys get the bit between their teeth. I take any dips in silver down towards the $6.65ish level as great low-risk levels to initiate new long positions. Maybe we do get a big cleanout and see $6.30-35 and one should never say never. Although the Blue Jays are 1-0 this year, I suspect that will be the last time this season they will be above .500. Oh, for the good old days of WAMCO.
I note that Oil has been having larger ranges each day yet struggling to make serious new highs. Maybe it is getting tired and we see down in the low $50's again, maybe even $48. That won't last long, IM uneducated O. It's cheap in historical terms (1980 oil at $50 a barrel is about $90 today),which means that Gold is being "given away" when one takes into account the historical 17-1 valuation.
I note a few of my favourite equities have been having a "rest" lately. Silver Standard Resources (SSRI) at around $11 is one that catches the eye, as I see it as a pure silver call option that has no maturity. There are many, many small/med caps that stand out like the proverbial "sore thumb." Golden Star (GSS) is some 12% above its recent low of $2.60 yet gold is actually lower than when this issue traded there. Hmmm. Just my opinion. (I sent a very short email to Toddo last nite explaining my absence and said I thought the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) would lose 5 points... it was only 4.88. I hate being wrong... but I reckon we get it all back tonight. Just guessing.)
Vouvray ran 4th on Saturday in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Guess who won? Grand Armee, by a lot! Vouvray shudda run 2nd but her jockey zigged when he shudda zagged and ran her up the ar$se of another horse at the home turn! That's racing.
The idiot box was on Bloomies this morning when I hit the wrong button and got a baseball game. Has another year gone by already? What happened to my hockey season???
Enjoy the day ....
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