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Applied Complexity Analysis: NVDA




Note: the following analysis is formulated as an assimilation of Fibonacci, DeMark, Elliott Wave and other technical indicators. It is offered as education and not intended as advice in any way.

Our work suggests that Nvidia's (NVDA) recent peak was a potentially very important bifurcation point that could have ended a corrective bounce from both the August 2004 lows as well as from the 2002 lows. If so, the bearish trend that started in January 2002 and took 90% off the price of the stock could be re-emerging after a significant 2 ½ year corrective bounce. There are a number of important Fibonacci relationships between the large degree peaks and troughs in this stock. And when combined with the momentum divergences (weekly, daily and hourly), the DeMark trend exhaustion indicators at various scales, the fractal pattern as well as important trend channel lines, we believe NVDA has re-started its longer term bearish trend from the recent March 1st peak of $29.60 (not advice).

If our analysis is correct, NVDA could make its way, with increasing momentum, toward $17 in the next several months and below $10 over the next handful of quarters. The decline from the March 1st peak however is nearing a completed impulse pattern; therefore our work suggests a counter-trend bounce toward Fibonacci price and time resistance of $25.40 to $27.00 between April 18th and April 28th (not advice). We will look to this time and price window to turn back NVDA and re-start its bearish trend. Patience will be key with this name; so too will pattern, as we will want to make sure the bounce from whatever low is struck (yesterday's or perhaps in the next few days) is corrective in nature. If so, the aggressive interpretation calling for much lower prices could be the best course looking to position for the next, potentially violent, move down (not advice).

Please note: We are now able to offer our proprietary complexity model analysis on both stocks and/or stock indices as a daily service to institutional investors and a select number of individual investors. There are several different services available; each are provided on a monthly subscription basis and cover all U.S. indices and all U.S. stocks. Please contact us for details and rates.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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