Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Head Higher
Your daily Buzz & Banter highlights...
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Earnings Report - MV News
- Micron (MU) reports 2Q EPS of ($0.06) vs. ($0.01) cons on revs of $1.43 bln vs. $1.47 bln cons.
Buzz in the Afternoon - Todd Harrison - 2:23 PM
- My eyes continue to flicker between Goldman (still under $210), breadth (flat), the homies (danglin') and sector rotation as we edge, nay crawl, through the afternoon action.
- Hoofy will offer that we're digesting yesterday's gains. Boo will counter that we've rallied into the teeth of resistance without the banks (BKX still under the 200-day) and the homebuilders thisclose to a brokedown palace. Tricky is as tricky does, Forest.
- That smell, by the way, is the MV gears grinding behind the scenes as we ready to unleash something very snazzy early next week. What is it? Put it this way...when I started the 'Ville five years ago, this initiative is precisely what I had in mind.
- Did the FOMC ring a bell at the top of the dot.com bubble burst? Nope. They were also quite coy in discussing the real estate bubble while it was expanding, getting louder only after the pain trade arrived. I offer this as context, not criticism. The sooner we (the collective we) condition ourselves not to believe everything we read, see or hear, the quicker we'll arrive at a place of financial independence.
- If you were jonsing for Oil last week when the Iran tension was upticking, it's worth noting that the USO (oil fund) has pulled back to the point of the previous breakout.
Randoms - Fil Zucchi - 2:06 PM
- As collateral to not forcing trades, I am trying to not force utterly useless Buzzes, on a day when the Game Show Channel is far more interesting than the Minx.
- I have added a brand new round of precious metals exposure against the StreetTracks Gold (GLD). It's a strategy that has worked, so may as well stick to it.
- I got shaken out of a long position in the Japanese Yen (JYM07) half a dozen times before finding the right range. This is what I am looking at on a chart basis. The "fundies" side of this position lies in where long rates have traveled. Anything remotely close to a weak job number on Friday could push rates down and pressure the dollar.
- Inflation is now officially computed ex-Hershey (HSY) bars.
- As talk-TV drifts on to the next sound bite, sub-prime and not so sub-prime continues to melt. Keep a close eye on the likes of WaMu (WM) and what the market thinks of its credit quality.
- At risk of "rationalizing" Bunge's (BG) earnings miss, it smells much more like the former derivatives screw-ups by Phelps Dodge, than a "real" fundies problem; and we know that those screw-ups did not hurt PD's stock price for long.
Positions in JYM07, BG, HSY, GLD, gold equities
Where We Stand - Kevin Depew - 11:44 AM
Here is where we stand this morning with the major bullish percent indicators (links go to the charts available at Stockcharts.com):
- NYSE Bullish Percent: Os (Negative), 69.22%, up 0.51% yesterday
- S&P 500 Bullish Percent: Os (Negative), 72.08%, up 0.84% yesterday
- Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent: Os (Negative), 54.14%, up 0.14% yesterday
- Nasdaq-100 Bullish Percent: Xs (Positive), 62%, up 3.3% yesterday
The NYSE Bullish Percent is very close to a reversal to Xs, which would show demand back in control of that portion of the market.
Aunt Fannie Stock and OBV - Bennet Sedacca - 11:04 AM
As readers know, I am moving towards zero exposure to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae securities. I must stress that I don't think they can fail, but I do think spreads versus Treasuries can blow out, like in the Farm Credit Crisis of the 1980's (bonds widened 200 basis points in a short time).
I also continue to buy GNMA paper (Ginnie Mae) off all varieties. And T Bills.
In other words, sell implicit guarantees and buy explicit guarantees. I am not alone as I keep hearing of bid list after bid list surfacing.
Well, the other day I opined here that FNM and FRE stocks might be very useful as a tell.
So I looked at the OBV (on balance volume) on a weekly basis on FNM. Note that there is huge net selling.
So you know, OBV is defined as a 'method for determining whether buyers are accumulating or whether sellers are distributing it,' according to Bloomberg. Clearly it is under persistent distribution.
if I were a hedge fund, I would be short it. As a bond manager, I will be void by May 1, I hope.
Where would the FNMA/FHLMC paper trade if they weren't GSE's? What would their credit rating be? I have my idea. Please cast your vote here what you think it should be rated...
position in FNMA, FHLMC, GNMA paper
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