...chasing, racing, pressing or guessing turns relative yawners like yesterday into potential headaches.
They are the champions, my friends
They kept on fighting 'till the end
They are Gators, they are the Gators
No time for losers 'cause they are the champions of the world
Good morning as we toss a few snaps to the superior swamp. With a tip of the hat that will rest in my hand, we'll begin today's spin with some Gator snaps. Charlie Poe, a true Minyan if there ever was one, shot me an email on Friday offering $1000 to the RP Foundation if
The one fella who won't pony up and, in fact, will be on the receiving end of some rather snazzy critter prizes is Tom Bonfield. Tom took the Minyanville Bracket Challenge with a narrow win over a tough field and will be the center of critter attention when he claims his trophy. How did those of us at MVHQ fare? Well, um, uh...Queen Vanessa, the canuck from the north, topped the entire (US born male dominated) office to claim bragging rights. That's pretty crazy, eh? EH?
We Now Return to Our Regularly Scheduled Schvitz....
April Fools arrived a few days late as a minxy pop & drop greeted the start of the second quarter. The upside writing seemed to be scribbled on the wall as we walked into a jiggy Japan, blingy bourses and pre-market futures that had the Matador Crowd prancing proud. As I peeled out of alotta my long side inventory on Thursday, I entered the session light, tight and balanced both ways. I didn't chase the race as initial lagginess in the financials, semicaps and homies quelled my morning dwell and, just as those sectors started digesting supply, I noticed subtle yet stealth slippage in the market internals.
While a strong close would have quickly morphed the above thoughts into "post-rationalization," it speaks to the evolving and ever-changing mechanism that is the market. We often talk about quack counts (having our ducks lined up) and committing capital consistent with relative edges and defined risk. Emotion tends to cloud lucidity--we've all had performance anxiety--but chasing, racing, pressing or guessing turns relative yawners like yesterday into potential headaches. I know, I've been there plenty of times and I'll likely be there again. But I wasn't there yesterday and, for that, I am grateful.
Chewing through the Tuesday dew, it's relatively quiet on the news front as we ready to roll up our sleeves. The NDX has a slightly better set-up (over NDX 1700) while the S&P attempts to base above S&P 1295ish (1310 remains initial support). I continue to watch the banks like a hawk (the bird, not as an interest rate observer) as the BKX toys with 106 and the brokers go for broke. I had dinner last night with a good pal who runs ten figure size and we touched on the financials. He thinks they're ripe for a pull-back but have plenty of room to run. I know this fella's track record and, take my at my word, I listened intently to the other side of that trade.
Will Someone Please Call
Congratulations to Pepe Depew who (unknowingly) published the 10,000th Minyanville News & Views article yesterday. We're also closing in on our 50,000th Buzz which, from where I stand, is very exciting. Every time I hear the catch phrase "content is king," I think of the buried treasure sitting in our archives. There's a lot of "there" there, Minyans, and it's a wealth of knowledge a few key strokes away.
Move over, John Denver, there's gonna be a summer pilgrimage to the
Rocky Mountains ! As announced yesterday, Minyans in the Mountains III will be held August 10-13 at Vail Cascade. Ojai Mountaineers will see alotta familiar faces--from Santoli to Shobin to Saut (oh my!), along with Tom DeMark, Michael Thompson, Snoop Tone, the MV Professors and a handful of my hedge fund friends. Alas, as we tend not to rest on our laurels (whatever that means), rest assured that I've got a few aces left up my sleeve.
Finally, I wanna share a thought from Jeff "As Good as it Gets" Saut of Raymond James, who offered this nugget in his excellent missive yesterday: "A bunch of mergers, combined with a renewed yen "carry trade," has the pre-opening futures pretty perky this morning. Consequently, look for a higher opening that could build into an upside blow-off into Wednesday's synchronistic serendipity when at two minutes and three seconds after 1:00 a.m., the time and date will be 01:02: 03 04/05/06, which will not happen again in our lifetimes.
Good luck today.
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